Colts vs. Jets Final Score Prediction for NFL Week 11 (Can Anthony Richardson Lead Indianapolis to an Upset Win?)

Iain MacMillan | 8 Hours Ago

Oct 27, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) looks for an open receiver during the game against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Two weeks of Joe Flacco starting was enough for the Indianapolis Colts to see before making the decision this week to return to their second-year quarterback, Anthony Richardson. He'll get the nod at quarterback this week when he and the Colts head to East Rutherford to take on the New York Jets.

The Colts season isn't over quite yet. They're sitting at 4-6, one game back from the Denver Broncos for the wild card spot in the AFC. The Jets are also hoping to get back into the mix with a win on Sunday. Whichever of these two teams walks away victorious will be in the playoff conversation heading into Week 12, especially if the Broncos fail to beat the Falcons.

Let's take a look at the latest odds for this game and then I'll dive into my final score prediction.

Colts vs. Jets Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

Spread

• Colts +4 (-110)
• Jets -4 (-110)

Moneyline

• Colts +170
• Jets -210

Total

• OVER 44 (-110)
• UNDER 44 (-110)

The Jets originally opened at 3-point favorites but the line quickly moved to Jets -3.5. After the announcement that Richardson will be the starter this week, the line shifted another half a point in favor of the Jets. New York is now a 4-point favorite. The total for the game has remained steady at 44.

Colts vs. Jets Final Score Prediction

Even with Richardson at quarterback, I still like the Colts chance to cover the spread in this one. I broke down the bet in this week's edition of the "Road to 272 Bets":

I can't get on board laying more than a field goal on the New York Jets, who seem to be imploding of late. The one aspect of the team you could lean on is their defense, but even that side of the football has been an issue for them since they moved on from Robert Saleh.

In their five games since firing Saleh, the Jets defense ranks dead last in opponent EPA per play and 25th in opponent success rate. To make matters worse, they're 30th in both opponent rush EPA and opponent rush success rate. Now, they have to take on a Colts team that averages 4.7 yards per carry behind one of the elite running backs in the NFL, Jonathan Taylor.

An aging quarterback, a toothless offense, and a defense that has completely lost its mojo doesn't sound like a team that should be a 4-point favorite. I'll back the Colts.

While I may not trust Richardson, I do trust their running back and I can't lay points on a defense that has been as bad as the Jets. That's why I'm also leaning toward the OVER when it comes to the total. The Colts offense may surprise some people on Sunday. I'm going to take them to pull off the upset.

Final score prediction: Colts 24, Jets 21

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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