Colts vs. Texans Final Score Prediction for NFL Week 8 (Bet On Breakout Performance from Houston)

Iain MacMillan | 3 Hours Ago

Sunday, Sept. 8, 2024, during a game against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. / Christine Tannous/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts will face-off in a rematch of their Week 1 duel that saw the Texans squeak by with a 29-27 win.

Seven weeks later, both teams currently sit in a playoff spot in the AFC. The Texans hold the top spot in the AFC South and the Colts currently hold the second wild card spot at 4-3. A win for either team will go a long way in padding their playoff resume as we head toward the midway part of the season.

Let's take a look at the latest odds for this divisional showdown and then I'll predict the final score of the game.

Colts vs. Texans Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

Spread

• Colts +5 (-110)
• Texans -5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Colts +200
• Texans -250

Total

• OVER 46 (-110)
• UNDER 46 (-110)

The Texans opened as 6-point favorites but the spread has shifted one point in favor of the Colts. Houston now sits at -5 ahead of Sunday's action.

Colts vs. Texans Final Score Prediction

In this week's edition of the "Road to 272 Bets", I broke down why I liked the Texans to win and cover as 6-point favorites. Now that the line has moved one point, I like them even more as 5-point favorites.

I simply can't bet on the Colts when Anthony Richardson is their starting quarterback. Amongst all QBs who have played at least 112 snaps this season, Richardson ranks dead last in EPA+CPOE composite and is the only one who has a negative mark in that metric at -0.036. That's worse than the likes of Deshaun Watson, Andy Dalton, and Jacoby Brissett.

The Texans' defense has also been an underrated unit this season, ranking inside the top 10 in opponent yards per pass attempt, opponent EPA per play, and opponent success rate. This could end up being a coming-out party for Houston.

If I'm betting on the Texans because of the poor play by Richardson, I'm going to lean toward the UNDER as well. Not only do I not trust Richardson, but the Texans offense also hasn't lived up to expectations this season. They've been good, but not as great as they looked last season.

With that being said, I trust them a lot more than I trust the Colts. I'll back the Texans to win and cover and the total to stay UNDER.

Final score prediction: Colts 13, Texans 27

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