Commanders vs. Buccaneers Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 1

Iain MacMillan | Sep 3, 2024

Aug 23, 2024; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneer quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) calls a play against the Miami Dolphins during the first quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports / kim klement neitzel-usa today sports

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were crowned NFC South champions for the third straight season last year and will begin their journey for a fourth straight division crown on Sunday.

They'll take on the Washington Commanders in Week 1, who will begin the Jayden Daniels era. Daniels, the Heisman Trophy winner from LSU, was selected with the No. 2 selection in the 2024 draft and now has a chance to start his NFL career off right.

Let's take a look at everything you need to know to bet on this opening week showdown, including my best bet.

Commanders vs. Buccaneers Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

Spread

• Commanders +3 (-105)
• Buccaneers -3 (-115)

Moneyline

• Commanders +140
• Buccaneers -165

Total

• OVER 43.5 (-110)
• UNDER 43.5 (-110)

Commanders vs. Buccaneers How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, Sept. 8
• Time: 4:25 PM ET
• Venue: Raymond James Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): FOX
• Commanders record: 0-0
• Buccaneers record: 0-0

Commanders vs. Buccaneers Betting Trends

• Commanders went 1-6 ATS in their last seven games in 2023
• Commanders are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. NFC South opponents
• The UNDER is 7-1 in the Buccaneers' last eight home games
• The UNDER is 8-0 in the Buccaneers' last eight games vs. NFC East opponents

Commanders vs. Buccaneers Injury Reports

Commanders Injury Report

• Jer'Zhan Newton, DT - Questionable
• Marcus Mariota, QB - Questionable
• Brandon Coleman, OT - Questionable

Buccaneers Injury Report

• Trey Palmer, WR - Questionable
• Christian Izien, S - Questionable
• Kaevon Merriweather, S - Questionable
• Tyrek Funderburk, CB - Questionable
• Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, LB - Questionable
• SirVocea Dennis, LB - Questionable
• Yaya Diably, LB - Questionable

Commanders vs. Buccaneers Key Players to Watch

Washington Commanders

Jayden Daniels: Commanders hope their No. 2 overall pick, Jayden Daniels, ends up being the quarterback of the future. He'll likely rely on their best offensive weapon, Terry McLaurin, in the passing game while also taking off with his legs whenever he can. Keep an eye on the Heisman Trophy winner to get his career started off on the right foot.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Mike Evans: People forget Mike Evans led the NFL in receiving touchdowns with 13, while also hauling in 79 receptions for 1,255 yards. He continues to be one of the more underrated receiver in the league. He will be a key player for the Buccaneers all season long.

Commanders vs. Buccaneers Prediction and Pick

I broke down my best bet for every single Week 1 game in the latest edition of the "Road to 272 Bets," including a bet on the total for this NFC matchup:

When you think of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, you may think of strong defense, but that wasn't the cause for the Bucs last season. They ranked 22nd in opponent yards per play (5.4) and did little this offseason to improve on that side of the football. Then there are the Commanders, who were second-last in the NFL in opponent yards per play at 5.9.

In other words, this game is a matchup between two defenses who were in the bottom half of the NFL, or in the Commanders case in the bottom five, in several key defensive metrics, yet the total is set at just 43.5.

I have faith Baker Mayfield and his strong receiving core can get the ball moving offensively, so this bet will come down to the rookie, Jayden Daniels, doing the same for Washington. If he can, I think this total will get OVER.

Pick: OVER 43.5 (-110)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!