Commanders vs. Eagles Best NFL Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football in Week 11

Iain MacMillan | Nov 13, 2024

Nov 3, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley (26) score on a 19-yard touchdown run during the second quarter against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-Imagn Images / Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

The NFC East lead is on the line on Thursday Night Football when the Washington Commanders take on the Philadelphia Eagles.

You can check out my full betting preview where I break down everything you need to know including the odds and my best bet. In this article, I'm going to break down my favorite player props for this divisional showdown.

Commanders vs. Eagles Player Props

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Saquon Barkley OVER 91.5 Rush Yards (-113)
• Jayden Daniels UNDER 226.5 Pass Yards (-113)
• Zach Ertz UNDER 3.5 Receptions (-106)

Saquon Barkley OVER 91.5 Rush Yards (-113)

The Commanders defense has struggled to stop the run this season, allowing 4.8 yards per carry while ranking 27th in opponent rush EPA and 25th in opponent rush success rate. Now, they have to try to stop one of the most effective run games in the NFL.

Saquon Barkley has eclipsed 100+ rush yards in three of his last four games and was on pace against the Cowboys but got his carries limited due to it being a blowout. Barkley is now averaging 110.1 rushing yards per game this season. I think he goes for 100+ once again on Thursday night.

Jayden Daniels UNDER 226.5 Pass Yards (-113)

Based on the public narrative surrounding Jayden Daniels, you may be surprised to find out that he's averaging just 214.7 passing yards per game this season, 12 yards fewer than his set total for this game. He finally faced an elite defense last week against the Steelers and he completed just 50% of passes for 202 yards.

Now, he has to face an Eagles secondary that allows just 5.5 yards per pass attempt, the fewest in the NFL. Their secondary has been red-hot of late, so I'm going to fade Daniels and take the UNDER on his passing yards total.

Zach Ertz UNDER 3.5 Receptions (-106)

The Eagles have done a fantastic job defending against tight ends this season, allowing the fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season. Considering Zach Ertz is averaging only 3.7 receptions per game this season, it seems like a great opportunity to take the UNDER on his receptions total.

Ertz is a boom or bust player. He hauled in seven receptions against the Bears but then followed it up by catching just one pass the following week against the Giants. I think he's more likely to have a "bust" performance against the Eagles on Thursday night.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!