Commanders vs. Saints Final Score Prediction for NFL Week 15 (Fade Saints Without Carr)

The Commanders are massive favorites on the road in Week 15.

The Commanders are 1-0 ATS when favored on the road. / Amber Searls-Imagn Images

The New Orleans Saints’ playoff hopes were completely dashed in their Week 14 win over the New York Giants, as starting quarterback Derek Carr fractured his hand and may miss the rest of the season.

Now, New Orleans is a major underdog at home against the Washington Commanders, who are fresh off of a bye and looking to sew up one of the final playoff spots in the NFC. 

Jayden Daniels – the favorite for the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year – should have a field day against a New Orleans defense that ranks 20th in the NFL in EPA/Play, especially since both Jake Haener and Spencer Rattler underwhelmed in place of Carr earlier this season.

The Saints didn’t win any of those three games that Carr missed with a rib injury, making this a tough turnaround for them in Week 15.

Using the latest odds and analysis from the SI Betting team, here’s my prediction for the final score in this matchup on Sunday. 

Commanders vs. Saints Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Commanders -7.5 (-105)
• Saints +7.5 (-115)

Moneyline

• Commanders: -340
• Saints: +270

Total

• 43 (Over -110/Under -110)

The Commanders are 1-0 against the spread as away favorites this season while New Orleans is 2-3 against the spread as a home dog and 0-3 against the spread without Carr. 

Commanders vs. Saints Final Score Prediction

Earlier this week, I shared why the Commanders are my favorite pick in Survivor pools, and I think they gave blowout potential against the Saints. 

If you have the Washington Commanders available, this is a perfect week to take them off the bye.

Yes, the Baltimore Ravens are the biggest favorite against the New York Giants this week, but they could be saved for later on in the season – or in the playoffs if your pool goes that far.

Washington is a 7.5-point favorite against a Saints team that won’t have Derek Carr for several weeks with a fracture in his hand. 

This season, the Saints are 0-3 when Carr doesn’t play, and the games were ugly.

• 51-27 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• 33-10 loss to the Denver Broncos
• 26-8 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers

They only scored four total touchdowns in those games and didn’t have a single game with more than 19 first downs.

Plus, SI Betting’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan is all over the Commanders as favorites, as he broke down in his Road to 272 column: 

I can't justify a bet, no matter what the spread is, on the Saints without Carr. Both Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener were horrific when they played this season and now add in the fact that Taysom Hill, Chris Olave, and almost every other offensive weapon for the Saints is also out.

Now, they have to take on a rest Commanders team with a lot to play for. Despite a few hiccups at times this season, the Commanders are still third in the NFL in EPA per play and Success Rate. They should thrive against a Saints defense that allows 5.9 yards per play, the second most in the league.

Don’t overthink this matchup. 

Final Score Prediction: Commanders 26, Saints 10

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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