Conference USA College Football Preview: Odds, Prediction to Win and Best Win Total Bets for 2024 Season

Reed Wallach | Jul 26, 2024

Sep 17, 2022; Winston-Salem, North Carolina, USA; Liberty Flames quarterback Kaidon Salter (7) gets ready to throw the ball against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons during the first half at Truist Field. Mandatory Credit: James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports / James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports

Conference USA welcomed Liberty in 2023 and the Flames quickly seized control of the conference, running the table en route to a conference championship in its first season.

This year, no team is viewed as more likely to win its respective conference than Jamey Chadwell's Liberty Flames, but who else can climb up the ranks and compete for a conference crown?

Below you will find win total best bets on two teams in CUSA as well as a potential dark horse before we assess Liberty's outlook in 2024.

For more on Conference USA check out the win totals for each team here as well as each team’s conference championship odds. 

Conference USA Conference Preview and Best Bets

Middle Tennessee State Over 4.5 Wins (-122, FanDuel Sportsbook)

While there are plenty of new faces on hand, the Blue Raiders return a 3,000-yard passer in Nicholas Vattiato back under center. 

MTSU hired Derek Mason, a defensive-minded head coach who has plenty of experience at the Power Four level, and Mason’s first move was to hire Bodie Reader, who helped engineer several high-powered offenses, including Eastern Washington’s a few years back that averaged north of 42 points per game in the FCS ranks. 

Vattiato will have running back Frank Peasant back from injury and Auburn transfer Omari Kelly, who is overqualified for this league as a former four-star recruit that signed with Auburn. 

The offensive line loses several starters but will have upperclassmen at every position and a defense that will hope to gel quickly under Mason. 

While there are concerns for a D that ranks 124th in returning production, the bar is quite low to clear after the unit ranked 97th in EPA/Play last season. 

After having a win total of 6.5 last season, the Blue Raiders have far lower expectations with a win total of 4.5.

The team will be favored in potentially only five games but has winnable games at home that include Western Kentucky and road games at Louisiana Tech in addition to likely coin toss matchups at UTEP and Florida International. 

It’s a new regime in Murfreesboro, but I think the drop in expectations and a potentially loaded offense can have this team overachieving in 2024. 

Louisiana Tech Under 5 Wins (-115, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Indicators are pointing up on Middle Tennessee, but I’m down on Louisiana Tech, and I believe that the Bulldogs may be in for a new coach after Sonny Cumbie’s third in Ruston after a pair of 3-9 campaigns. 

The Bulldogs will likely be starting Jack Turner, who saw plenty of action last season (1,020 yards 5/5 TD/INT ratio in seven games), as the team hopes that running back Marquis Crosby can return to form after missing most of last season due to injury. 

La. Tech will need a new pass catcher to emerge with Cyrus Allen transferring to Texas A&M with no player on the roster having more than 50 targets last season. 

There are questions on offense, but even more on the defense that ranked outside the top 100 in EPA/Play, yards per play, and tackles for loss. The unit is transitioning to a new defense under first-year defensive coordinator Jeremiah Johnson, who will look to play a 3-3-5 scheme. 

However, with a new DC that is trying to change a defensive philosophy with a returning production mark that is outside the top 100, I’m skeptical that it will come together so quickly. 

The Bulldogs play Nicholls in Week 1 before a bye in Week 2, throwing the schedule all out of whack. The team will close with eight straight games, including four straight weekday games that include travel each week. The team avoids Liberty, but plays at NC State and Arkansas in non-conference play. 

The trajectory of the program is going down and I’m not trusting Louisiana Tech to double its win total in 2024 given a tricky schedule.

Dark Horse: Sam Houston State (+2200, DK)

Sam Houston State won only three games in its first season in the FBS ranks, losing six one-score games, including two overtime defeats, mainly because of an inept offense. 

The Bearkats struggled on O all season, but the hope is that with additions of Central Michigan transfer Jase Bauer or JUCO import Hunter Watson, the team can take a big leap on offense after injuries stunted any momentum in 2023.

SHSU ranks 17th in offensive returning production and returns all five starters on the offensive line, a promising sign for a conference that can have a ton of parity in the middle. 

The defense, despite the poor record, was right at the national average last season, 70th in the country, and returns about two-thirds of its roster. 

The conference schedule closes with a road trip to third favorite Jacksonville State and a home game on a Friday night against the favorite Liberty, which SHSU nearly beat last season. Can the team be in the mix where those games decide who goes to the CUSA title game? 

Conference USA Championship Prediction and Best Bet: Liberty -190 (FD)

Liberty was a New Year’s Six Bowl team, going 13-0 in the regular season in its first season in Conference USA, before losing to Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl. 

Jamey Chadwell’s team enters as the clear favorite in 2024 with quarterback Kaidon Salter returning to the roster as well as running back Quinton Cooley, who rushed for 1,404 yards and 16 touchdowns on the ground. 

The defense has plenty of talent that has havoc-drivers and uses its size at this level to overwhelm opposing offensive lines but wasn’t all that stellar over the regular season, 65th in EPA/Play and 86th in EPA/Rush. However, the team forced turnovers at a top-10 clip and ranked 40th in tackles for loss. 

There are key questions on this team that make me think the Flames may not be the Group of Five bid to the College Football Playoff like it envisions, including who fills in at wide receiver for 1,000-yard WR CJ Daniels and on the offensive line, but there is a reason that the Flames are the favorites to win the league more than any other team in the country. 

Liberty has a significant talent advantage over any other team with the best player in Salter, who can mask up a ton of possible vulnerabilities with his dual-threat capabilities. Salter passed for 2,869 yards while running for 1,108 and totaling 44 touchdowns with only six interceptions. 

Head coach Jamey Chadwell has been a G5 maestro running offenses, and this iteration is no different with the Flames fresh off its first season in a conference in which it averaged seven yards per play (seventh in the country) and nearly four points per drive (fourth). 

There is a significant gap between Liberty and the rest of CUSA, even if this team isn’t as good as the 2023 version, and is rightfully a huge favorite to win the league for a second straight season.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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