Cowboys Super Bowl Odds Suffer Biggest Setback Yet After Loss to 49ers

Iain MacMillan | Oct 28, 2024

Oct 27, 2024; Santa Clara, California, USA; Dallas Cowboys wide receiver KaVonte Turpin (9) reacts after a fumble recovered by a teammate against the San Francisco 49ers during the first quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-Imagn Images / Kelley L Cox-Imagn Images

It might be time to push the panic button in Dallas. We're eight weeks into the 2024 NFL season and the Cowboys sport a losing record at 3-4.

Not only do they have a losing record, but they're quickly falling out of contention in the NFC East. Many people thought it would be another battle between the Eagles and Cowboys for the top spot in the division, but the Washington Commanders have taken on the Cowboys' role and Dallas has been demoted to being a longshot to be back-to-back division champs.

Let's take a closer look at just how far the Cowboys have fallen based on their latest Super Bowl odds.

Cowboys Super Bowl odds

odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Before Week 1: +1900
• Before Week 8: +3500
• After Week 8: +8000

If their Super Bowl odds are any indication, the Cowboys Week 8 loss to the San Francisco 49ers has all but put the nail in the coffin of their championship hopes and dreams. At drop from +3500 to +8000 in one week is a fall in implied probability from 2.78% to 1.23%.

What happened to the Cowboys?

It was just a year ago when the Cowboys finished the regular season with a 12-5 record and the NFC East crown while looking like legitimate Super Bowl contenders. It's up for debate exactly what happened to this team, but they are a shell of their former selves.

It hasn't simply been bad luck that has led to their 3-4 record. The Cowboys have been a disaster from an analytics perspective as well. They currently rank 27th in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at -0.8. Only the Saints, Giants, Panthers, Browns, and Patriots rank worse.

If you want to look at some more advanced numbers, they're 23rd in EPA per play and 30th in opponent EPA per play.

A lot of their offensive issues can be blamed on Dak Prescott, who is having the worst season of his career. His 63.7% completion rate is his worst since 2017 and his eight interceptions is on track to blow by has career high of 15. His 47.2 QBR and 84.5 quarterback rating are also the worst of any season.

Unless the Cowboys make some significant changes, fans can kiss their Super Bowl dreams goodbye.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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