Cubs vs. Pirates Prediction, Odds and Probable Pitchers for Monday, Aug. 26 (Back Home Team?)

Oddsmakers have made Monday's series opener between the Cubs and Pirates a pick'em...

Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Mitch Keller. / Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

The Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates are both under .500 and on the outside looking in of the NL playoff picture with just over a month to go in the 2024 regular season.

It’s not a great place to be, but both teams will have a chance to gain some ground in the NL Central with a win on Monday night. The Cubbies are on the road to begin this three-game set with the Buccos, who are just one game under .500 at home in 2024. 

Oddsmakers have this game set as a pick’em, and there are two starting pitchers who haven’t exactly had a great month of August on the mound. So, how should bettors proceed in this NL Central clash?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, pitchers and my best bet for Monday’s divisional clash. 

Cubs vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Cubs -1.5 (+150)
• Pirates +1.5 (-180)

Moneyline

• Cubs: -110
• Pirates: -110

Total

• 8.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Cubs vs. Pirates Probable Pitchers

• Chicago: Jameson Taillon (8-8, 3.77 ERA)
• Pittsburgh: Mitch Keller (11-7, 3.76 ERA)

Cubs vs. Pirates How to Watch 

• Date: Monday, Aug. 26
• Time: 6:40 p.m. EST
• Venue: PNC Park
• How to Watch (TV): Marquee Sports Network, AT&T SportsNet Pittsburgh
• Cubs record: 65-66
• Pirates record: 62-68

Cubs vs. Pirates Key Players to Watch

Chicago Cubs

Jameson Taillon: After pitching pretty well for the majority of the 2024 season, Taillon has struggled over his last five starts, putting together a 6.84 ERA while allowing four or more earned runs in four of those outings. The Cubs are just 1-4 in his starts over that stretch. 

Pittsburgh Pirates

Mitch Keller: Keller bounced back from two awful starts against the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres to spin seven scoreless innings against the Texas Rangers in his last start. Keller has led the Pirates to an impressive 17-8 record in his 25 starts in 2024. 

Cubs vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick

I don’t love the profile of Keller or Taillon so far in August, but Keller has at least turned in two good starts this month.

Meanwhile, Taillon has been struggling since the end of July, shooting his ERA up from 2.96 to 3.77 in the process. Not ideal.

The Cubbies are just 10-12 in his starts this season, and 1-4 in his last five. Plus, Chicago has struggled on the road, going 29-37 straight up. That leads me to a bet on the Pirates and Keller, who is coming off one of his best starts of the season.

Keller has led the Pirates to a win in 68 percent of his outings in 2024, and he held the Cubs to just two runs on two hits across six innings of work earlier this season.

I don’t mind this price for Keller after he showed some signs of turning things around last time out. 

Pick: Pirates Moneyline (-110)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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