Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Austin Riley's Can't Miss Prop Bet)

Reed Wallach | Jul 4, 2024

Jun 28, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves third baseman Austin Riley (27) hits a home run against the Pittsburgh Pirates in the second inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports / Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

We have a loaded card on Thursday with the stars set to show out on the Fourth of July. 

There are plenty of favorable hitting conditions across Major League Baseball, and I’m banking on some of the premier sluggers to cash in for us, including Juan Soto, Austin Riley and Christian Yelich. 

Find out why these are my three preferred targets on the 15 game card below!

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Thursday, July 4th 

• Juan Soto (+285)
• Austin Riley (+560)
• Christian Yelich (+500)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook 

Juan Soto

Soto is as dangerous as any hitter in the big leagues (besides his teammate Aaron Judge). 

I’ll opt to bet Soto to go deep on Thursday, who bolsters a .561 slugging percentage against righty hitters and a devastating hard-hit percentage of 57%, which ranks in the 99th percentile in the big leagues. 

Facing Frankie Montas, who has seen his fastball diminish as he gets shelled by hard contact, but particularly by lefty hitters. Montas has allowed six homers to left handed hitters in his 15 starts, far more than the two he has allowed to righties.  

Austin Riley 

Riley has had an injury riddled 2024 season, but he is still an elite slugger, posting a 90th percentile hard-hit percentage and an xSLG of .500. However, he has a slugging percentage of just .434, so some positive regression is likely coming. 

How about on Thursday? 

The Braves will face Giants starter Logan Webb, who is in the second percentile in hard-hit percentage, pitching far worse than his 3.13 ERA would indicate (he has a 4.14 xERA). Riley’s number has drifted out due to Webb’s ability to induce groundball contact, but I can’t pass up this number. 

Christian Yelich

Yelich has returned to his status as one of the premier hitters in baseball, posting a .333 batting average. While not known for his power, Yelich is in a good spot to go deep on Thursday at Coors Field. 

The hitter friendly ballpark always opens up opportunities for hitters to crack a homer, and Yelich is in as good of a spot as anyone, but has seen his price drift out given his low output this season (nine total home runs). 

Yelich thrives against righty pitchers, though, hitting six of his nine against that type of pitcher and slugging .541 this season. 

Cal Quantril has middling numbers against left handed hitters this season and lacks the ability to sit batters down, 21st in strikeout rate. 

I’ll bank on the talent of Yelich to show out and cash in at this big number for him to go yard. 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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