Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Back Matt Olson to Go Yard)

Reed Wallach | Aug 31, 2024

Aug 29, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Atlanta Braves first base Matt Olson (28) hits a two RBI home run during the third inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports / Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

For Saturday's big league card, there are plenty of options when it comes to a home run prop bet.

Matt Olson has emerged once agian in the middle of the Braves lineup as Atlanta looks to further its chase of the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East, the team's opponent on Saturday. While Olson will have a tough test on the mound in Zack Wheeler, is there reason to back him to go deep on Saturday?

Here's who to target in the home run prop bet market.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Saturday, August 31st

• Juan Soto (+350)
• Colton Cowser (+400)
• Matt Olson (+350)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Juan Soto

Soto is one of the very best in the game. He's going to post a career high in home runs this season while ranking in the 100th percentile in xSLG percentage.

He's always worth a look when it comes to betting home run props, but Saturday is incredibly advantageous against soft-tossing veteran Kyle Gibson, who has an ERA of 5.54 since the All-Star break as he continues to face some underlying regression.

Gibson is in the 36th percentile in terms of hard-hit rate, and has really struggled against lefty hitters, allowing 10 home runs and has a WHIP of 1.53.

Colton Cowser

The Orioles rookie draws a favorable matchup at the hitter friendly Coors Field on Saturday night against the erratic Rockies starter Ryan Feltner.

Feltner has allowed nine home runs to lefty hitters and nine more hits to southpaws relative to righties in only four more at bats. With a subpar blend of movement on his pitches, Feltner doesn't get many swings and misses and has been vulnerable to some serious power, particularly at home.

The starter has a 5.96 ERA in 11 starts at home this season, allowing eight home runs. Behind Feltner is a bottom five Rockies bullpen, so the lefty Cowser should have plenty of opportunities on Saturday.

The AL Rookie of the year favorite has 20 home runs to his name this season and a barrel percentage in the 91st percentile, meaning he squares up the ball at a high clip. With the altitude in Colorado, his ball should fly that much further.

Matt Olson

While Olson is hitting just .217 against Zack Wheeler in his career, five of his hits have been home runs.

The first baseman is trending upwards at the moment, having his best month of the season, hitting .274 with a .594 slugging percentage to go with eight home runs, his most of any month.

Wheeler presents a tough test for any hitter, but Olson has proven he can take him deep. Further, the longer this game goes and the Phillies bullpen enters, the hitter friendly Citizens Bank Park can be used to the slugger's advantage.

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