Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Can't Miss Longshot on Saturday's Baseball Slate)

Reed Wallach | Jul 20, 2024

Jul 5, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Alec Bohm (28) hits a single against the Atlanta Braves in the fourth inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports / Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Saturday's are for home run bets.

We scoured the big league slate on Saturday for home run prop bet winners, and there's a wide array of betting opportunities, both long shots and MVP candidates. While Shohei Ohtani presents a short shot to go yard, it remains a good bet given the conditions on Saturday. Meanwhile, Alec Bohm's number has become tantalizing that he can't be overlooked.

Here's my favorite bets for Saturday's home run prop bet menu.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Best Home Run Prop Bets for Saturday, July 20th

• Alec Bohm (+830)
• Salvador Perez (+430)
• Shohei Ohtani (+260)

Alec Bohm Home Run

Bohm, despite showing out in the Home Run Derby, has one home run in July as his price has drifted out to +830, an egregious misprice for a player that is in the 74th percentile in hard-hit percentage with an xSLG in the 84th percentile. 

The Phillies will face Luis L. Ortiz of the Pirates, who has shown out in spot starting duty (three starts, 25 total appearances), but is due some negative regression, sitting in with a 3.67 xERA that is far higher than his actual 2.83 ERA. 

Ortiz has done a good job of avoiding the long ball, with only three home runs allowed, but I’m jumping on the big price of Bohm, who has a .502 slugging percentage against right-handed pitchers. 

Salvador Perez Home Run

Perez is as reliable as it comes this season, hitting .280 with a .473 slugging percentage, both elite marks. What’s crazy is he should be hitting even better with an xBA of .292 and an xSLG of .560. 

At home, I like Perez to crack a homer against White Sox prospect Jonathan Cannon, who has struggled to get swing and misses and is vulnerable to hard contact (39th percentile). 

Shohei Ohtani Home Run

Let’s keep it simple and go with the runaway NL MVP favorite. 

Ohtani crushes right-handed pitchers, slugging .700 with 22 home runs in 240 at-bats. The numbers are staggering for Ohtani, who is in the 100th percentile in metrics like xSLG and hard-hit percentage. 

Further, the lefty will face Brayan Bello, who struggles against southpaws, allowing nine home runs against 195 batters this season. 

It’s chalky, but I believe Ohtani is a good bet at this price tag. 

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