Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Colton Cowser Strong Bet to Go Deep)

Reed Wallach | Aug 16, 2024

Jul 29, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Orioles outfielder Colton Cowser (17) at bat during the eighth inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Reggie Hildred-USA TODAY Sports / Reggie Hildred-USA TODAY Sports

The Friday night MLB slate features plenty of home run prop betting value, and a good bit of it comes from the emerging rookie sluggers. 

Colton Cowser and Jackson Merrill have emerged as the top Rookie of the Year choices for position players in their respective leagues, and both are in prime position to go yard on Friday, headlining our Daily Dinger article for Friday!

Best MLB Home Run Bets for Friday, August 16th

• Colton Cowser (+500)
• Nick Castellanos (+440)
• Jackson Merrill (+420)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Colton Cowser

Cowser has moved throughout the Orioles lineup all season, but has seemingly found a spot at the top of the order, where he needs to see pitches ahead of Baltimore’s loaded set of hitters. 

The AL ROY frontrunner has taken full advantage, hitting .300 with four home runs and 12 runs batted in (if he bats seventh, he also crushes here, hitting .326 with four homers and 20 RBI’s). 

Since the All-Star break, Cowser’s average is up to .327 from .219 prior to it while he has maintained elite hard hitting metrics, ranking in the 84th percentile in hard-hit percentage and 90th percentile in barrel rate. 

The Red Sox will start Cooper Criswell in this matchup, who doesn’t throw very hard, second percentile in fastball velocity, and lacks a strikeout pitch, seventh percentile in K-rate. If the ball is going to stay in the strike zone for Cowser, he can pounce on the Red Sox starter early. 

Nick Castellanos 

While the Phillies have slumped since the All-Star break, Castellanos hasn’t. 

He is hitting .304 since the All-Star break with a .533 slugging percentage and three home runs. He particularly thrives against left-handed pitching, posting a .504 slugging percentage with eight home runs in about a third of the at bats against righties. 

Castellanos will face Patrick Corbin, who is among the worst pitchers in Major League Baseball with a 5.98 ERA. The lefty is amongst the big league leaders in home runs allowed this season with 19 and is in the third percentile in hard-hit rate. 

Castellanos is my favorite bet of the Phillies sluggers to go deep. 

Jackson Merrill

Merrill and the surging Padres head to Coors Field where the NL ROY contender can pad his stats. The lefty slugger ranks in the 92nd percentile in xSLG and has hit .329 since the All-Star break with a glistening .659 slugging percentage. 

At Coors Field, he should feast against a righty Cal Quantrill, who enters in poor form, posting a 6.75 ERA since the All-Star break while allowing three home runs in four starts. Further, behind him is a bottom three bullpen in terms of ERA. 

Merrill is swinging a confident bat, and a great bet to go yard at Coors Field. 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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