Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Judge Goes Deep Again)

Reed Wallach | Jun 29, 2024

Jun 28, 2024; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; New York Yankees center fielder Aaron Judge (99) hits a single against the Toronto Blue Jays during the sixth inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports / Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

Major League Baseball presents a full slate of Saturday baseball on June 29th, and we are sticking with some tried and true sluggers. 

The best hitter in baseball, Aaron Judge, has already hit 30 home runs before July, and Saturday is a great opportunity to jump on this prop. Judge will hit indoors against the Blue Jays in Toronto, who have an inconsistent Chris Bassitt on the mound, setting up nicely for him to go deep in this divisional showdown. 

Find out how I’m attacking the home run prop bet market on Saturday. 

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook 

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Saturday, June 29th

• Aaron Judge (+260)
• Jake Cronenworth (+630)
• Royce Lewis (+370)

Aaron Judge

I know, it’s chalky, but Judge is a threat to go yard against any pitcher at any time, and the price is right for a homer on Saturday. 

Judge, who leads the big leagues with 30 big flys already this season, draws a favorable matchup against Chris Bassitt and a lackluster Blue Jays bullpen. 

Bassitt isn’t getting many chases by batters this season, 17th percentile, but has done a good job of limiting hard contact, especially by right handed hitters. Lefties usually do better against Bassitt, he has allowed seven homers against southpaws and only one against right handers, but that’s giving us a better price than usual on Judge. 

This season, the AL MVP favorite has hit 23 of his 30 homers against righties with a .700 slugging percentage.

Jump on this price for Judge to crack one yet again. 

Jake Cronenworth

While Red Sox starter Tanner Houck has thrown himself in the Cy Young race with his fine play, Cronenworth presents a tough test. 

The Padres first baseman is a monster against right handers, hitting .286 with a slugging percentage of .521 while hitting 11 of his 12 homers. 

Houck has been fantastic this season, predominantly a groundball pitcher, but that’s generating some value on Cronenworth to go deep with the wind blowing out at 14 miles per hour. 

Royce Lewis

Lewis has quickly emerged as one of the best hitters in baseball, crushing 10 home runs in less than 100 at bats this season while hitting .289 with a slugging percentage of .699. 

He has eight of his 10 home runs against righty pitchers, and now will face Bryce Miller, who is due for a serious step back as the season wares on. Miller has an xERA of 4.34, far higher than 3.90 with a fifth percentile barrel percentage. Lewis has been on a tear all season, finding the sweet spot often in at bats, and with Miller’s looming regression, I’ll grab the slugger to go deep. 

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