Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Oneil Cruz's Home Run Prop has Immense Betting Value)

Reed Wallach | Jul 2, 2024

Jun 24, 2024; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates shortstop Oneil Cruz (15) runs the bases after hitting a two-run home run in the seventh inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports / Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

July has rolled around and it's time for Oneil Cruz to catch a heater.

Cruz has immense upside, but his results haven't matched some of the impressive numbers that are underneath the hood when he makes contact. With that in mind, I'm targeting Cruz as one of my three home run prop bets on Tuesday's card.

Keep reading to find out how I'm betting the home run prop bet market and why Ryan McMahon has made the cut for a second straight day.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Best Home Run Prop Bets for Tuesday, July 2nd

• Oneil Cruz (+480)
• David Dahl (+460)
• Ryan McMahon (+500)

Oneil Cruz

Cruz hasn’t had the results he was hoping for in his first full season in the bigs after being lost to injury in 2023, but the power is still there. 

The shortstop ranks near the top of several hitting metrics, including average exit velocity (99th percentile) hard-hit percentage (96th percentile) and xSLG (85th percentile), but only has a .239 batting average with 12 home runs. 

Cruz does draw a plus pitching matchup against Kyle Gibson and an erratic Cardinals bullpen. 

The left hander has a .505 slugging percentage against righties, and should thrive against the soft tossing Gibson. 

David Dahl 

Dahl will see more time due to injuries to the likes of Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, and this matchup sets up nicely for the left hander. 

While he only has three home runs on the season, all of them have come when facing right handed pitchers, which the Cubs will start on Tuesday in Hayden Wesneski. Further, this is a hitter friendly matchup with the winds blowing out at Wrigley Field at 15 miles per hour. 

Wesneski has some concerning underlying metrics, including an xERA that is more than a run higher than his actual ERA (4.81 vs. 3.60), so I’ll side with Dahl as my home run hitter of choice. 

Ryan McMahon

McMahon couldn’t cash for us in a high scoring affair on Monday against the Brewers, but I’ll trust him once more against Dallas Keuchel of the Brewers. 

McMahon is hitting .316 against lefties, which Keuchel is, with a .526 slugging percentage, crushing five home runs in 95 at bats. Keuchel is far from his time as a quality arm, signed to eat innings for the Brewers. 

His inability to generate swings and misses leads to a ton of hard contact that will be exaggerated in Colorado, where the ball flies even further due to the high altitude. 

In a game that should feature plenty of hard contact, I’ll take McMahon for a second straight game, who ranks in the 96th percentile in hard-hit percentage. 

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