Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Pete Alonso Keeps Mets Heater Alive)

Reed Wallach | Jun 19, 2024

Jun 18, 2024; Arlington, Texas, USA; New York Mets first base Pete Alonso (20) doubles in the go-ahead run in the ninth inning against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports / Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

The biggest story in baseball of late is the surging New York Mets, who have won seven straight games to get back into the thick of it in the NL playoff picture. 

Pete Alonso will look to keep it rolling for the Mets with a home run on Wednesday. Given the matchup, this is an appetizing bet at decent odds. He headlines our daily dinger slate for the full day of games, with two other sluggers factoring in as well. 

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Best MLB Prop Bets for Wednesday, June 19th

• Rafael Devers (+330)
• Trevor Larnach (+460)
• Pete Alonso (+340)

Rafael Devers

Devers has been swinging a sweet bat all season and is doing a ton of damage in June, batting .304 with a .643 slugging percentage. 

While he has four home runs this month, I expect another on Wednesday against a floundering Kevin Gausman, who is struggling to get swings and misses at a career-average rate and is a victim of hard contact. 

Gausman is in the 20th percentile in terms of hard-hit percentage this season, per MLBStatcast, and can run into issues against Devers, who is in the 91st percentile in that same metric while rating in the 93rd percentile in terms of xSLG.

Trevor Larnach

Larnach has been a pleasant surprise to the Twins lineup this season, and he is a threat to go yard against the volatile Taj Bradley at home on Wednesday. 

Bradley is all about strikeouts, punching out 31% of batters this season. However, if he isn’t doing that, he is getting tagged by hard contact. Bradley has allowed eight home runs in seven games this season. 

Enter Larnach: who has crushed seven homers against righty pitchers this season and is making hard contact on 46% of balls in play, top 20 percentile in the big leagues. The left fielder isn’t lined as high as the likes of Royce Lewis, but given this matchup against a righty pitcher, this sets up nicely. 

Pete Alonso

Alonso is cooking during this Mets hot streak. He is hitting .300 with eight runs batted in but has only hit a home run once in this subset. 

However, Alonso has the power to challenge the middling Rangers bullpen, namely lefty Andrew Heaney. 

Heaney, a left-hander, has struggled against righty hitters this season, allowing nine home runs against that side, and has been pummeled by hard contact, 21st percentile, and typically lets hitters put the ball into the air, 14th percentile in ground ball percentage. 

With the ability to lift the ball, and hit it hard, I like Alonso to go yard on Wednesday. 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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