Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Prime Matchups for Salvador Perez, Jose Ramirez)

Breaking down the best players to bet on to hit a home run in the ALDS action in the MLB Playoffs on Monday.

Kansas City Royals catcher Salvador Perez. / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

The ALDS returns after a one-day hiatus for a pair of games on Monday, starting with the Cleveland Guardians hosting the Detroit Tigers this afternoon.

Cleveland got off to a fast start, scoring five runs before the Tigers recorded an out in Game 1 on its way to a 7-0 win. However, the AL Central winners find themselves as underdogs in Game 2, as Detroit ace and AL Cy Young favorite Tarik Skubal is on the mound for the Tigers.

That’s going to make it tough to bet on a player to hit a home run – especially since the total in that game is set at just six!

In the other ALDS matchup, the New York Yankees and Kansas City Royals square off after a back-and-forth Game 1 led to a New York win. Gleyber Torres and MJ Melendez each hit homers in that game, and we could see some more long balls at Yankee Stadium with a pair of lefties on the mound.

Here’s a breakdown of my favorite home run props for Monday’s MLB Playoff action. 

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Monday, Oct. 7

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Jose Ramirez to Hit a Home Run (+550)
• Salvador Perez to Hit a Home Run (+350)
• Juan Soto to Hit a Home Run (+420)

Jose Ramirez to Hit a Home Run (+550)

Fading Skubal sounds crazy, but if I’m going to do it with anyone, it’s with Jose Ramirez.

In his career, Ramirez has hit Skubal extremely well, posting a .429 batting average and 1.121 OPS in 21 at-bats. He’s 9-for-21 against the Tigers lefty with three doubles and one triple, but he has never taken him deep.

Skubal does a good job limiting the long ball – he only allowed 15 in 31 starts this season – but Ramirez does hit left-handed pitching well.

Out of his 39 homers this season, Ramirez hit 14 of them against lefties while posting an insane .348/.386/.695 slash line. I’m willing to take a chance on the All-Star third baseman at this price on Monday. 

Salvador Perez to Hit a Home Run (+350)

Speaking of players with good matchups, Royals catcher Salvador Perez should be chomping at the bit to get there against the Yankees on Monday night.

Why? Well, lefty Carlos Rodon is on the mound for the Yanks, and he’s had his fair share of trouble against Perez in his career.

The veteran catcher is hitting .462/.481/.846 against Rodon in his career, picking up 12 hits in 26 total at-bats. Of those 12 hits, three have been home runs. 

Perez has been elite against left-handed pitching this season, hitting .297 with nine homers and a .510 slugging percentage in just under 150 at-bats. 

Rodon has also been vulnerable to the long ball all season long, giving up 31 homers in 32 starts. 

Juan Soto to Hit a Home Run (+420)

Yankees star Juan Soto had a massive Game 1 in this series, going 3-for-5 with a double, and he could be in line for another big showing in Game 2.

Even though Soto has to face a lefty in Cole Ragans, we saw the Royals go to their bullpen early (which struggled) in Game 1, so Soto may get an at-bat or two against a righty in this one.

Not only that, but the Yankees outfielder has some success in limited at-bats against Ragans, going 1-for-3 with a homer. 

Soto smacked 13 homers against left-handed pitching (41 overall) in the 2024 regular season. Don’t be shocked if Soto uses the short porch in right field to his advantage on Monday.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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