Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Target Christian Yelich on Monday)

Reed Wallach | Jun 10, 2024

Jun 5, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Christian Yelich (22) bats against the Philadelphia Phillies in the seventh inning at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports / Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports

Sure, there are only six games on the Monday MLB slate, but there are still going to be home runs hit across the board.

With a condensed card, there may appear to be limited options, but there are a handful of long odds hitters that are in a position to go deep on Monday, namely Christian Yelich of the Brewers against regression-bound Jose Berrios with a shaky bullpen.

Yelich is the big name of our bunch, but don't sleep on the likes of Ryan Jeffers and Jeremy Pena, as detailed below.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Best Home Run Prop Bets Today, June 10th

• Ryan Jeffers (+600)
• Christian Yelich (+600)
• Jeremy Pena (+1000)

Ryan Jeffers

Jeffers has cracked 12 homers this season, finding the barrel on nearly 12% of balls in play, which ranks in the 79th percentile amongst qualified MLB hitters, per MLBStatcast.

He is slugging .500 against righties this season with eight of those home runs coming against righty pitchers. While he is only hitting .091 in June, I believe that is driving the price down and this matchup presents a great opportunity to shake off some rust.

The Twins face Dakota Hudson, who is crushed by hard contact (25th percentile) and is getting zero swings and misses (ninth percentile in whiff percentage).

This is a great matchup for the Twins lineup, and I like Jeffers to get back on track come Monday night.

Christian Yelich

Yelich is enjoying a big year at the plate for the first-place Brewers, hitting .324 with six dingers while slugging .518. He is making hard contact on half of the balls in play (90th percentile) and is playing fantastic at home.

The former MVP is hitting .355 at home this season but has only turned in three home runs, but I think that can change on Monday against Jose Berrios, who has been lucky not to get knocked around this season.

Berrios has an xERA far higher than his actual ERA, 2.80 ERA vs. an xERA of 4.41, and has struggled to contain lefty hitters. The veteran righty has allowed seven of his 10 home runs against lefties, so this is a poor matchup to begin with. Further, he ranks in the 15th percentile in hard-hit percentage, making for a host of issues heading into Monday's start.

At 6-1, Yelich is my favorite bet to go yard.

Jeremy Pena

Pena's odds have drifted out to +1000 on Monday, and I disagree quite a bit, as he remains as dangerous as anyone not named Yordan Alvarez in the projected Astros lineup on Monday.

Houston travels to San Francisco on Monday to start an early week series with the wind projected to blow out to left field at nine miles per hour. That's impactful for this matchup as Pena has hit all of his home runs to left field this season, five, while hitting .300 on the year.

Pena has more power when facing lefties, he has slashes of .315/.324/.507 this season against southpaws as opposed to .294/.335/.367 against right handed pitching. The Astros will face Kyle Harrison of the Giants, a lefty who has struggled all season, posting a 4.18 ERA with a 4.69 xERA.

There's a lot lining up for Pena to cash at these long of odds.

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