Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Target Juan Soto, Lane Thomas in Great Matchups)

Breaking down the best players to bet on to hit a home run in the NLCS and ALCS on Monday night.

New York Yankees outfielder Juan Soto. / Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

Both the ALCS and NLCS are in action for the first time this postseason on Monday, as the New York Yankees open their series with the Cleveland Guardians while the New York Mets look to even things up in Game 2 against the Los Angeles Dodgers. 

Every day here at SI Betting, we share our favorite home run prop bets for the MLB action, and the ALCS and NLCS are no different – they’re just a little harder to predict.

With only two games to choose from and every team super careful about how long they let their pitchers go, home runs may be few and far between. 

After a homer-less day in Game 1 of the NLCS – despite the Dodgers scoring nine runs – I have three players that I think are worth a shot to go deep on Monday night.

Let’s break down the latest odds and picks! 

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Monday, Oct. 14

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Juan Soto to Hit a Home Run (+400)
• Francisco Lindor to Hit a Home Run (+300)
• Lane Thomas to Hit a Home Run (+600)

Juan Soto to Hit a Home Run (+400)

There isn’t a single matchup on the board better than Juan Soto against Alex Cobb.

The Yankees slugger has destroyed the Cleveland starter in his career, going 7-for-11 with one double, two homers, four runs batted in and a walk. That’s good for a slash line of .636/.667/1.273 and an OPS of nearly 2.000.

Soto didn’t go deep in the ALDS, but he did pick up four hits in 14 at bats for the Yankees. Cobb may try to pitch around the All-Star outfielder, but if he doesn’t, I love Soto at this price on Monday. 

Francisco Lindor to Hit a Home Run (+300)

This is more of a feel pick than a numbers pick since Francisco Lindor only has five at bats against Los Angeles opener Ryan Brasier in his career, going 1-for-5. 

The Dodgers have not allowed a run in three games, and I think they’re finally going to regress a little to the mean in a bullpen game in Game 2. 

Lindor has come up with clutch hit after clutch hit for the Mets in the postseason, homering three times in his last 10 games dating back to some must-win matchups at the end of the regular season. 

He’s worth a shot for a Mets team desperate to get back on track offensively this evening. 

Lane Thomas to Hit a Home Run (+600)

We have another great matchup in the ALCS, as Guardians slugger Lane Thomas should have a field day against Yankees lefty Carlos Rodon.

Let’s start with the Thomas side of things.

This season, the Cleveland outfielder is hitting .302/.386/.492 against left-handed pitching slugging four homers in 126 at bats. He’s just a .214 hitter against righties this season, so we’re hoping he can jump on Rodon early, who has been prone to the long ball all season.

In 32 regular season starts, Rodon allowed 31 home runs, with right-handed hitters taking him deep 28 times. Don’t be shocked if Thomas knocks one out at Yankee Stadium tonight.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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