Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Target Trea Turner, Fernando Tatis Jr. on Tuesday)

Breaking down the best players to bet on to hit a home run in the NLDS Game 3 action on Tuesday, Oct. 8.

San Diego Padres outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr. / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

The NLDS resumes on Tuesday night after a travel day for all four teams on Monday. 

Both the New York Mets-Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres-Los Angeles Dodgers series are tied at one game apiece, leaving a ton of intrigue for these critical Game 3 matchups.

While the Mets and Phillies have an interesting pitching matchup between Sean Manaea and Aaron Nola – who have both been great in 2024 – there is a pitcher to fade in the San Diego-Los Angeles matchup.

Dodgers starter Walker Buehler comes into tonight’s start after posting an ERA of over 5.00 in the regular season, and I’m fading him in the home run prop market tonight.

Yesterday, we cashed Salvador Perez to hit a home run against Carlos Rodon – a pitcher he has crushed in his career. Using more matchup data, here are two players to consider betting on for tonight’s Game 3s. 

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Tuesday, Oct. 8

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Trea Turner to Hit a Home Run (+380)
• Fernando Tatis Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+275)

Trea Turner to Hit a Home Run (+380)

Phillies shortstop Trea Turner picked up two hits in Game 2 of this series, and now he has a favorable matchup in Game 3 against Manaea.

The Mets lefty allowed 21 homers in 32 starts during the regular season, and he’s struggled against Turner in his MLB career. Turner is hitting .313 with one homer and a pair of runs batted in across 16 at bats against Manaea.

Even though Turner only hit 21 homers in the regular season, he smacked eight of them against left-handed pitching in just 152 at bats. He also was better overall against lefties, posting a slash line of .303/.363/.526 in 2024. 

At nearly 4/1 odds, Turner is a solid bet against a pitcher he has seen well throughout his career. 

Fernando Tatis Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+275)

This is a matchup-based play, but right now, Fernando Tatis Jr. is crushing every matchup. 

The Padres star has three homers in four playoff games so far in 2024, hitting 9-for-14 with seven runs scored and five runs batted in.

It’s hard to be much better than that.

Now, he gets to take on Buehler, who allowed 16 homers in 16 starts in a down 2024 season. Tatis has fared well against the Dodgers righty in his career, hitting .296 with four homers and eight total hits in 27 at bats. 

The Los Angeles bullpen has also been shaky in this series, so even if Buehler is bounced early, I like Tatis’ chances to stay hot no matter what.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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