Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Why Gunnar Henderson is a Must-Bet on Wednesday)

Reed Wallach | Jul 24, 2024

Jul 14, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson (2) enters the field before the game against the New York Yankees at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: James A. Pittman-USA TODAY Sports / James A. Pittman-USA TODAY Sports

Wednesday's MLB card brings us an all-day slate of games, and we are covered from early on until the end.

When scouring over the home run card, two All-Stars prove to be worthy of a bet in the scorching Trea Turner and AL MVP candidate Gunnar Henderson. In addition to those two, keep an eye on Josh Smith of the Rangers, who has a favorable matchup on Wednesday to break out of a slump.

Here's my three favorite home run prop bets for Wednesday with odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Wednesday, July 24th

• Trea Turner (+520)
• Gunnar Henderson (+500)
• Josh Smith (+560)

Trea Turner

Turner has recovered from injury and is on an absolute heater in July, hitting .353 in 68 at-bats with nine home runs. 

However, he is still being priced as a relatively long shot to go yard against a bullpen-centric effort from the Twins on Wednesday. 

Steven Okert draws the start, his first of the season, and then it will be up to a host of characters to navigate the elite Phillies lineup. 

Turner’s number is appetizing with his ability to hit both lefties and righties (five homers against left-handed pitching, seven against right-handed pitching), so I don’t believe we’ll see a drop-off throughout the game. 

Gunnar Henderson

Henderson’s number has drifted out to +500, far too long for an MVP candidate with Henderson’s power against a poor Marlins pitching staff. 

The righty slugger is in the 98th percentile in hard-hit percentage and 94th percentile in xSLG, which is going to be an issue for Marlins starter Edward Cabrera and a bottom-five bullpen ERA. 

Cabrera is in the third percentile in hard-hit percentage, which is likely going to lead to a ton of home run-threatening contact from a loaded Orioles lineup. 

When a player of Henderson’s caliber drifts out this steep, we have to pounce. 

Josh Smith

Smith is only hitting .111 since the All-Star break, but this feels like a good time to back him to go deep against a porous White Sox pitching staff. 

The lefty-swinging third baseman notched two hits on Tuesday, including a double, so maybe the swing is rounding into form. 

Smith is slugging .500 at GlobeLife Park this season and has crushed eight of his 10 home runs against right-handed pitching. 

Further, White Sox starter Chris Flexen has been destroyed by lefty hitters, allowing 11 home runs against 186 batters, far worse than allowing six home runs against 253 batters. 

I’ll trust the southpaw Smith to snap out of it and crush one Wednesday. 

---

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.