Dayton vs. Cincinnati Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Friday, December 20

Reed Wallach | 8 Hours Ago

Cincinnati Bearcats guard Simas Lukosius (41) takes the ball down court in the second half of the 92nd Annual Crosstown Shootout NCAA basketball game between the Cincinnati Bearcats and the Xavier Musketeers at Fifth Third Arena on the UC campus in Cincinnati on Saturday, Dec. 14, 2024. The Bearcats won 68-65. / Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

A pair of Ohio teams meet in-state on a neutral floor on Friday night to headline the college hoops slate. 

The Cincinnati Bearcats are enjoying a strong start to the season and will look for a signature victory against Dayton. The Flyers have had an up-and-down week, storming back to beat Marquette at home before rallying to beat UNLV in the final minute. 

What can we expect in a measuring stick matchup for both teams? 

Dayton vs. Cincinnati Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Dayton: +3.5 (-110)
• Cincinnati: -3.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Dayton: +140
• Cincinnati: -170

Total: 137.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Dayton vs. Cincinnati How to Watch

• Date: Friday, December 20
• Game Time: 8:30 PM EST
• Venue: Fifth Third Arena
• How to Watch (TV): ESPNU
• Dayton Record: 10-2
• Cincinnati Record: 8-1

Dayton vs. Cincinnati Key Players to Watch

Dayton

Malachi Smith: The junior guard paces the Dayton offense, shooting nearly 50% from 3 with almost six assists to set up the potent perimeter attack. With strong perimeter defense as well, can Smith get Dayton on track against a stingy Cincinnati defense? 

Cincinnati

Simas Lukosius: The dead-eye shooter has been elite for Cincinnati this season, his second year with the program, up to 48% from deep on nearly seven attempts per game as he has opened up the entire offense for the rest of the team. 

Dayton vs. Cincinnati Prediction and Pick

This matchup figures to be tight throughout as Cincinnati holds its hat on its defense with a top 10 unit in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric and one of the best rim protectors in the country in Aziz Bandaogo. 

The Bearcats are top five in the country in field goal percentage allowed near the rim, per Haslametrics, which should shut down one avenue to Dayton generating points consistently. Further, the team is elite at shutting off spot up opportunities for opponents, ranking top 30 in the country in points allowed per possession, a key cog in the Dayton offense. 

While Cincinnati’s offense has been improved this season, the team has been shutting way above its level as ShotQuality ranks the offense 79th in the country relative to 23rd according to KenPom. 

As the small favorite, I do believe Cincinnati’s defense can dictate the terms of this game and the game can skew towards a defensive minded affair. 

PICK: UNDER 137.5

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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