Dayton vs. Rhode Island Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for Wednesday, Feb. 26

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Dayton-URI matchup in men's college basketball on Wednesday night.

Dayton Flyers head coach Anthony Grant talks to forward Nate Santos. The Flyers are favored on Wednesday. / Rob Gray-Imagn Images

The Dayton Flyers are looking to move up in the A-10 standings – and potentially get themselves in the mix for a bid to the NCAA Tournament – over the final weeks of the regular season, and they’ll take on the Rhode Island Rams on Wednesday night.

This is an interesting matchup, as the Rams have been one of the best home teams in the conference (13-2), but they are just 1-7 on the road. That’s really limited URI’s ceiling this season, especially since the team is under .500 in A-10 play.

Oddsmakers have the Flyers set as road favorites in this matchup, but can the Flyers win and cover?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for Wednesday’s contest. 

Dayton vs. Rhode Island Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Dayton -4.5 (-110)
• Rhode Island +4.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Dayton: -192
• Rhode Island: +160

Total

• 152.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Dayton vs. Rhode Island How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, Feb. 26
• Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Thomas M. Ryan Center
• How to Watch (TV): CBSSN
• Dayton record: 18-9
• Rhode Island record: 17-9 

Dayton vs. Rhode Island Key Players to Watch

Dayton 

• Nate Santos: This season, Santos is averaging 14.0 points and 5.3 rebounds per game for the Flyers while shooting an impressive 42.6 percent from beyond the arc on nearly five attempts per game. While Dayton doesn’t rely on one player to handle most of the scoring, Santos is their leading scorer and could be in line for a big game against this URI team that loves to push the pace. 

Rhode Island

• Sebastian Thomas: The senior guard has been the driving force for the Rams this season, averaging a team-high 17.0 points per game while averaging the most assists per game (6.1) and steals per game (2.2) in the A-10. While he’s shooting just 43.5 percent from the field and 30.5 percent from 3, Thomas could be worth a look in an assist or scoring prop in this matchup. 

Dayton vs. Rhode Island Prediction and Pick

The Dayton offense has been solid in the 2024-25 season, ranking 39th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency (per KenPom), despite playing at one of the slower paces in the A-10.

Rhode Island, on the other hand, is outside the top-100 in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom, but it does love to push the pace, ranking 42nd in adjusted tempo.

I think this matchup is a perfect spot to bet the OVER, as the Flyers have hit the OVER on the total in 18 games already this season. Rhode Island isn’t far behind with 15 games that have gone OVER the total. 

These teams haven’t matched up yet this season, but they rank very similarly in field goal percentage (95th and 96th in the country) while the Rams are 80th in points per game at 77.8.

Dayton’s pace could throw a wrench in this one, but URI is at home and may be able to control things from the jump. The Flyers have hit the OVER in five of their seven road games this season. 

Pick: OVER 152.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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