Derrick Henry vs. Saquon Barkley: Who Will Win Offensive Player of the Year?

Iain MacMillan | Oct 30, 2024

Oct 27, 2024; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry (22) warms up before the game between the Cleveland Browns and the Ravens at Huntington Bank Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn Images / Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

In recent years, the NFL MVP award has turned into the "best quarterback award" and the Offensive Player of the Year award has been given to the best player that's not a quarterback. Gone are the days of a non-QB winning MVP or a QB winning both MVP and OPOY.

That's why the top contenders on the odds list to win Offensive Player of the Year are running backs and wide receivers and it's become a two-man race over the past few weeks. Let's take a look at the latest odds.

Offensive Player of the Year Odds

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Derrick Henry +125
• Saquon Barkley +380
• Justin Jefferson +700
• CeeDee Lamb +1600
• Ja'Marr Chase +1700
• Lamar Jackson +1700
• Josh Allen +2000
• Jahmyr Gibbs +3000
• Kyren Williams +4000
• Josh Jacobs +4000
• Bijan Robinson +5000

Derrick Henry vs. Saquon Barkley

Based on the betting odds, Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley are atop the odds list then there's a wide gap ahead of Justin Jefferson who's No. 3. Barring one of the other players on the list having an astounding second half of the season, the award will likely go to one of those three players and it's even more likely to go to either Henry or Barkley. At +125 an +380 odds respectively, Henry has an implied probability of 44.44% of winning the award and Barkley's implied probability sits at 20.83%.

Let's take a look at how these two players' stats compare:

Derrick Henry Stats

• Yards per game: 118.3
• Yards per carry: 6.5
• Total Touchdowns: 11
• Receptions: 8
• Receiving yards: 66

Saquon Barkley Stats

• Yards per game: 109.4
• Yards per carry: 5.9
• Total Touchdowns: 6
• Receptions: 17
• Receiving yards: 106

At this point of the season, it's clear why Henry is favored. He's on pace to hit 2,000 yards on the ground for the second time in his career and he also has almost twice as many touchdowns than Barkley with 11.

With that being said, Barkley could bet worth a bet at his current odds based on both player's remaining schedules. Henry and the Ravens have three games against teams who currently rank in the top four in the NFL in opponent rush EPA including two games against the Steelers and one against the Chargers. They also have meeting with the Broncos, one of the best defenses in the NFL.

Meanwhile, the Eagles have four games against teams currently in the bottom four in opponent rush EPA including two against the Cowboys, one against the Rams, and a game against the Panthers.

Barkley is close enough to Henry that strong performances against some of the worst run defenses in the NFL will allow him to catch Henry's league-leading numbers. He's absolutely worth a bet to win the award at +380.

Offensive Player of the Year Prediction: Saquon Barkley +380

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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