Dolphins vs. Packers Best NFL Prop Bets for Thanksgiving Night in NFL Week 13

Iain MacMillan | 2 Hours Ago

Tua Tagovailoa is a great bet to go over his passing yards total on Thanksgiving against the Packers. / Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

NFL Thanksgiving Day action will wrap up on Thursday night in an interconference showdown between the Miami Dolphins and Green Bay Packers.

The Packers have a firm grasp on a playoff spot in the NFC with an 8-3 record, meanwhile the Dolphins have won three-straight games and can get back in the mix with a win on Thursday night.

With it being the final game of the day, let's get in on some player props.

Dolphins vs. Packers Player Props

• Tua Tagovailoa OVER 235.5 Pass Yards (-114) via FanDuel
• Josh Jacobs UNDER 73.5 Rush Yards (-115) via BetMGM
• Jonnu Smith OVER 4.5 Receptions (+112) via FanDuel

Tua Tagovailoa OVER 235.5 Pass Yards (-114)

Tua Tagovailoa is averaging 255.4 pass yards since his return from injury and now he gets to face a Packers defense that allows 6.6 yards per pass attempt, yet his set passing yards total for Thursday night is 235.5. The pass yards total is likely due to the cold weather that's in store for this game along with Tua's history of poor play in those conditions.

I'm not going to buy into that narrative. The Dolphins offense has been explosive the past five weeks and I expect that to continue on Thursday. I'll bet Tua to exceed expectations.

Josh Jacobs UNDER 73.5 Rush Yards (-115)

Josh Jacobs is averaging 85.3 rush yards per game this season but he'll have to face a solid Dolphins run defense. Miami ranks 10th in opponent rush success and eighth in opponent rush EPA.

Jacobs is coming into this game overvalued based on recent performances against bad run defenses. He put up 106 yards against the 49ers, 76 yards against the Bears, and 127 yards against the Jaguars, all three which have had major issues stopping the run this season. Let's sell high on his rush yards total on Thursday.

Jonnu Smith OVER 4.5 Receptions (+112)

Jonnu Smith has become a significant piece of the Dolphins offense. He has seen a combined 19 targets across the past two weeks, hauling in 15 receptions. Now, in cold weather, the Dolphins may relay on targets in the middle of the field instead of deep shots to the sidelines to the likes of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

I love this prop at plus-money.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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