Dolphins vs. Packers Final Score Prediction for Thanksgiving Day in NFL Week 13

Can the Dolphins cover the spread against Green Bay on Thanksgiving?

Can the Dolphins cover the spread against Green Bay on Thanksgiving? / Jasen Vinlove-Imagn Images

The third and final matchup on Thanksgiving in Week 13 features a surging Miami Dolphins team that has won three games in a row taking on the Green Bay Packers, who are fresh off of a huge win over the San Francisco 49ers.

Green Bay is in the mix for one of the top seeds in the NFC, especially if it can get ahead of the Detroit Lions – also playing on Thanksgiving – in the NFC North division.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins are on the outside looking in of the playoffs in the AFC, but they’ve moved into the No. 8 spot after beating the New England Patriots in Week 12. Miami has looked much better with Tua Tagovailoa back under center, and it’ll look to pull off an upset on Thursday night to spoil the Packers’ holiday.

Using the latest odds and analysis, I’m attempting to predict the final score of this matchup. While it’s extremely hard to get a final score right, a prediction in the right ballpark should help bettors make a decision on a side – or total – before wagering on this game. 

Let’s dive into this Thanksgiving matchup. 

Dolphins vs. Packers Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Dolphins +3.5 (-115)
• Packers -3.5 (-105)

Moneyline

• Dolphins: +145
• Packers: -175

Total

• 47.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Miami and Green Bay both come into this game with a 5-6 record against the spread. On top of that, Miami is 2-2 against the spread as a road underdog while the Packers are 2-2 against the spread as home favorites. 

The OVER has hit in five of Green Bay’s 11 games (5-5-1) and five of Miami’s 11 games (5-6). 

Dolphins vs. Packers Final Score Prediction

SI Betting’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan shared his favorite bet for this game in our betting preview earlier this week, and he’s leaning with the underdog: 

The Dolphins offense has been one of the best in the NFL since Tua Tagovailoa returned to the lineup, ranking fourth in EPA per play and second in success rate in that time frame. They look as explosive and dynamic as they did early last season and should strike fear into any opponent they face the rest of the season.

Jordan Love hasn't played well enough this season to convince me they can cover this spread against the Dolphins. He ranks just 15th in EPA+CPOE adjusted amongst starting quarterbacks and 10th in adjusted EPA per play. By comparison, Tagovailoa ranks third in both those stats.

The Packers have benefited from an average turnover margin of +0.5 per game, the seventh-best mark in the NFL. If the Dolphins can hang on to the football, I have no doubt they can cover this spread.

MacMillan makes some good points, especially regarding the Dolphins’ offense now that Tua is back. 

While I still think the Packers win this game, Miami has been scoring enough to keep this game close. Plus, Green Bay and Miami both have been average against the spread, so taking the points gives us a little more cushion on Thursday. 

Final Score Prediction: Packers 27, Dolphins 24

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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