Dolphins vs. Packers Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for Thanksgiving Day in NFL Week 13

Iain MacMillan | Nov 25, 2024

The Packers and Dolphins will play in the Thanksgiving Day Finale in Week 13. / Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

NFL's Thanksgiving Day action will wrap up with an interconference game between the Green Bay Packers and Miami Dolphins.

Just a few weeks ago, it looked like this game would only be meaningful for the Packers as they try to further solidify their spot in the NFC Playoffs. All of a sudden, this has also become a pivotal game for the Dolphins who are storming back in the AFC.

Miami has strung together three straight wins and is back in the AFC Playoff picture. They need to continue to win games and hope some teams ahead of them fall off the pace, but they are very much alive in the postseason race.

Dolphins vs. Packers Odds, Spread, and Total for Thanksgiving Day

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Dolphins +3.5 (-110)
• Packers -3.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Dolphins +154
• Packers -185

Total

• OVER 47.5 (-110)
• UNDER 47.5 (-110)

Dolphins vs. Packers How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, November 21
• Game Time: 8:20 pm et
• Venue: Lambeau Field
• How to Watch: NBC/Universo/Peacock
• Dolphins Record: 5-6
• Packers Record: 8-3

Dolphins vs. Packers Betting Trends

• Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last five games
• Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. Packers
• The UNDER is 5-1 in the Dolphins' last six road games
• Dolphins are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. NFC North opponents
• Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games
• Packers are 6-0 straight up in their last six games vs. AFC opponents
• The Packers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games played in Week 13

Dolphins vs. Packers Injury Reports

Dolphins Injury Report

• Anthony Walker Jr., LB - Questionable
• Jack Stoll, TE - Questionable
• Jeff Wilson Jr., Questionable
• Andrew Meyer, C - Questionable
• Mohamed Kamara, LB - Questionable
• Kendall Fuller, CB - Questionable
• Dee Eskridge, WR - Questionable
• Ethan Bonner, CB - Questionable
• Bradley Chubb, LB - Questionable

Packers Injury Report

• Romero Doubs, WR - Questionable
• Kitan Oladapo, S - Questionable
• Jacob Monk, C - Questionable
• Edgerrin Cooper, LB - Questionable
• Jaire Alexander, CB - Questionable

Dolphins vs. Packers Key Players to Watch

Miami Dolphins

Tua Tagovailoa: The Dolphins quarterback has been fantastic since returning from injury. He has completed over 70% of passes in his five starts since then, including a game against the Patriots in Week 12 when he completed 72.5% of passes for 317 yards and four touchdowns. If he keeps playing this well, the Dolphins have a chance to get back in the mix in the AFC Playoff picture.

Green Bay Packers

Josh Jacobs: Jordan Love has been inconsistent at times this season, so Josh Jacobs has been a nice weapon to lean on in the run game to keep the Packers' offense moving forward. Green Bay is at its best when the Packers' run game is rolling.

Dolphins vs. Packers Prediction and Pick

The Dolphins offense has been one of the best in the NFL since Tua Tagovailoa returned to the lineup, ranking fourth in EPA per play and second in success rate in that time frame. They look as explosive and dynamic as they did early last season and should strike fear into any opponent they face the rest of the season.

Jordan Love hasn't played well enough this season to convince me they can cover this spread against the Dolphins. He ranks just 15th in EPA+CPOE adjusted amongst starting quarterbacks and 10th in adjusted EPA per play. By comparison, Tagovailoa ranks third in both those stats.

The Packers have benefited from an average turnover margin of +0.5 per game, the seventh-best mark in the NFL. If the Dolphins can hang on to the football, I have no doubt they can cover this spread.

Pick: Dolphins +3.5 (-110)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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