Dolphins vs. Patriots Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 5 (Fade Miami)

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Miami Dolphins-New England Patriots matchup in NFL Week 5.

New England Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez. / David Butler II-Imagn Images

One of the uglier matchups in Week 5 of the NFL season comes in New England as the Miami Dolphins take their 1-3 record – and questionable quarterback room – on the road to play the New England Patriots.

After upsetting the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1, the Patriots have lost three games in a row, struggling on offense in the process. 

Miami has scored just 15 points in over two games since Tua Tagovailoa was hurt, losing to the previously 0-3 Tennessee Titans in Week 4. 

These are the two lowest scoring teams in the league in 2024, and the total in this matchup is all the way down at 35.5.

While oddsmakers view this game as a pick’em, I think there is a pretty obvious bet to make with Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) still out for Miami. 

Dolphins vs. Patriots Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Dolphins +1 (-110)
• Patriots -1 (-110)

Moneyline

• Dolphins: -102
• Patriots: -118

Total

• 35.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Dolphins vs. Patriots How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, Oct. 6
• Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Gillette Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): FOX
• Dolphins record: 1-3
• Patriots record: 1-3

Dolphins vs. Patriots Betting Trends

• The Patriots are 1-2-1 against the spread this season.
• The Dolphins are 0-4 against the spread this season.
• The OVER is 2-2 in the Patriots’ four games this season.
• The UNDER is 3-1 in Miami’s four games this season. 
• The Dolphins are 5-7 ATS as road dogs under Mike McDaniel.
• Miami has scored just 15 points in 2.5 games since Tua Tagovailoa was injured. 
• New England pushed the only home game it had so far this season. 

Dolphins vs. Patriots Injury Reports

Dolphins Injury Report

• Jeff Wilson Jr. – questionable
• Jaelan Phillips – questionable
• Jordan Poyer – questionable
• Terron Armstead – questionable
• Kendall Fuller – questionable
• David Long Jr. – questionable
• Raheem Mostert – questionable
• Skylar Thompson – questionable

Patriots Injury Report

• Caedan Wallace – questionable
• Kyle Dugger – questionable
• David Andrews – questionable
• Anfernee Jennings – questionable
• Vederian Lowe – questionable
• Michael Jordan – questionable 

Dolphins vs. Patriots Key Players to Watch

Miami Dolphins

Tyreek Hill: After putting up 130 yards in Week 1, Hill has just 87 receiving yards in the last three games due to the Dolphins’ horrible quarterback play. Unless Tyler Huntley – or Skylar Thompson – is able to turn things around, Hill could be in line for a tough day working against Christian Gonzalez and the Patriots’ secondary. 

New England Patriots

Jacoby Brissett: Over the last two weeks, Brissett has thrown one touchdown, one interception and taken 11 sacks. Not great. At some point, rookie Drake Maye is going to play, but the Patriots just need Brissett to take care of the ball on Sunday to have a chance against this struggling Miami squad. 

Dolphins vs. Patriots Prediction and Pick

I broke down why I’m betting on the Patriots pulling off a win in this matchup, even though oddsmakers view it as a pick’em, in this week’s NFL Survivor Picks: 

I know, I know, taking the New England Patriots sounds insane.

However, the Miami Dolphins have been awful over the last three weeks, scoring 25 combined points and just 15 total points since Tua Tagovailoa went down with a concussion.

Quarterback Tyler Huntley was not able to ignite the Dolphins offense against Tennessee, and I’m worried about him against a solid New England secondary that gave the Cincinnati Bengals trouble in Week 1 and took Seattle to overtime at home in Week 2. 

The Patriots return home in Week 5 to host the Dolphins, and I expect this to be a low-scoring, defensive-minded battle.

Pick: Patriots Moneyline (-118)

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Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.