Dolphins vs. Texans Final Score Prediction for NFL Week 15 (Can Miami Pull Off Upset?)

Can the Dolphins get back to .500 with an upset win in Week 15?

The Dolphins are 5-4 straight up when Tua Tagovailoa starts this season. / Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

The Miami Dolphins are looking to keep their playoff hopes alive in the 2024 season, and they may need to win out to even have a chance to sneak into one of the final spots in the AFC.

Miami enters Week 15 against the Houston Texans two games back of the No. 7-seeded Denver Broncos, but it has looked better since Tua Tagovailoa returned to the lineup. 

Houston, on the other hand, has played some pedestrian football so far this season, but it still leads the AFC South since the Indianapolis Colts (6-7) are the only team even sniffing .500 ball in the division. 

Houston is favored on Sunday against the Dolphins, but it hasn’t fared well as a favorite this season, going 3-5-2 against the spread.

Does that open the door for a potential Dolphins upset?

Using the latest odds and analysis, here’s a breakdown of this game and my prediction for the final score with playoff positioning on the line on Sunday.

Dolphins vs. Texans Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Dolphins +3 (-115)
• Texans -3 (-105)

Moneyline

• Dolphins: +120
• Texans: -142

Total

• 47 (Over -108/Under -112)

The Dolphins are 5-4 straight up in the nine games that Tua Tagovailoa has started, but they are just 5-8 against the spread overall this season.

Houston comes into this game at 5-6-2 against the spread overall and just 1-3-1 ATS as a home favorite. 

Dolphins vs. Texans Final Score Prediction

Earlier this week, SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan shared his pick for this game in his Road to 2727 column – where he bets every game, every week – and he thinks the Dolphins are live to pull off an upset in Houston: 

The Texans are in little danger of missing out on the playoffs, but there are a ton of red flags surrounding this team entering the final stretch of the season. To say C.J. Stroud has regressed this year may be an understatement. He ranks 28th amongst all quarterbacks in EPA+CPOE composite, two spots below Daniel Jones and just one spot above Caleb Williams. As a whole, their offense is 22nd in EPA per play and 30th in success rate.

Now, they host a Dolphins offense that continues to be elite as long as they're not being asked to play in cold weather conditions. Let's remember the Dolphins are technically still alive in the playoff race but will need to win out and get some help from other teams. There's no question in my opinion they have the far superior offense in this game so I'll ride them as underdogs in this AFC showdown.

The Dolphins have scored 23 or more points in six of their last seven games since Tagovailoa returned to the lineup, putting up at least 27 in five of those matchups. 

If they can do that again on Sunday, it’s going to make things tough on CJ Stroud and company, especially since the Houston offense hasn’t been at full strength for weeks with Stefon Diggs out for the year. 

Don’t be shocked if the Dolphins get back to .500 on Sunday. 

Final Score Prediction: Dolphins 26, Texans 20

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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