Drake vs. Texas Tech Prediction, Odds, Key Players to Watch for NCAA Tournament Second Round

Reed Wallach | Mar 21, 2025

Mar 20, 2025; Wichita, KS, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders guard Elijah Hawkins (3) reacts after a play in the first half of a first round men’s NCAA Tournament game against the North Carolina-Wilmington Seahawks at Intrust Bank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

No. 11 seed Drake pulled the first-round stunner over No. 6 seed Missouri in the first round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament, but the competition only gets harder with No. 3 seed Texas Tech up next in the second round. 

The Red Raiders received a good test against No. 14 seed UNC Wilmington, but the team’s perimeter prowess was too much for the Seahawks to match. Now, the Red Raiders look for a Sweet 16 berth against Drake, a deliberate offense with plenty of firepower around guard Bennett Stirtz. 

Can the Bulldogs keep up? Here’s our betting preview. 

Drake vs. Texas Tech Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Drake: +7.5 (-115)
• Texas Tech -7.5 (-105)

Moneyline

• Drake: +265
• Texas Tech: -315

Total: 126.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Drake vs. Texas Tech How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, March 22nd
• Game Time: 6:10 PM EST
• Venue: Intrust Bank Arena
• How to Watch (TV): TNT
• Drake Record: 30-3
• Texas Tech Record: 25-8

Drake vs. Texas Tech Key Players to Watch

Drake

Bennett Stirtz: The transfer guard was incredible in the first-round upset of Missouri, scoring 21 points, including making all three of three-point attempts in 40 minutes of action. The Missouri Valley Conference Player of the Year will face his toughest test of the season in Texas Tech’s imposing defense. Can he maintain his averages of 19 points, four rebounds, and nearly six assists on Saturday night? 

Texas Tech

Elijah Hawkins: The Minnesota transfer was fantastic in the team’s 10-point win over UNC Wilmington. Known for his playmaking, Hawkins did it all, scoring 14 points, but added nine rebounds and 10 assists in the win. Against a Drake team that can pressure the ball well, Hawkins will need to be at his best yet again. 

Drake vs. Texas Tech Prediction and Pick

This game will be dictated in the half-court as Drake plays at the slowest tempo in the entire country, but I believe that the Red Raiders spaced out offense can create plenty of opportunities to score at the rim. 

With shooting all across the floor, I expect Texas Tech to deploy the likes of Big 12 Player of the Year JT Toppin and forward Darrion Williams in pick-and-rolls to dominate at the cup. While the Bulldogs' defense is deliberate in limiting the possessions in this one and is adept at forcing turnovers, top 10 in the country, Texas Tech has the elite size to overwhelm the Bulldogs inside. Drake is 275th in the country in near-rim field goal percentage allowed, per Haslametrics. 

In a limited possession matchup, Texas Tech has far more upside on offense to win both inside and out, and a capable ball handler in Hawkins engineering a unit that is 28th in turnover rate. Looking back at Drake’s upset, the team forced Missouri to operate in the half court, which is where Missouri looked to avoid. However, Texas Tech is far more capable of playing in a limited possession affair, ranking 266th in adjusted tempo, per KenPom. 

With all that in mind, it’s tough to expect a blowout when the total is below 130 and the point spread is nearing double digits. With that in mind, I’m going to side with the under, as I believe Texas Tech can suffocate Drake’s offense that didn’t have all too much success against Missouri, but the possession battle keeps it to a low-scoring matchup.

PICK: UNDER 126.5 (-105, Available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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