Dream vs. Liberty Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for WNBA Playoffs Game 1

A sneaky prop bet play for Sabrina Ionescu?

New York Liberty guard Sabrina Ionescu. / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Well, it’s the New York Liberty’s time.

The No. 1 team in the WNBA for basically the entire season – finishing 32-8 – the Liberty begin their quest for a second straight WNBA Finals appearance against the No. 8-seeded Atlanta Dream on Sunday at 1 p.m. EST. 

These teams played on the final day of the regular season, with the Liberty playing most of their starters limited minutes, and it certainly benefited the Dream.

Needing a win to get into the playoffs, Atlanta won that game by 11 points – on the road – securing the eighth and final playoff spot after a slow start to the 2024 season.

Can Rhyne Howard, Tina Charles and company pull off a shocking first-round upset?

Oddsmakers aren’t sold on it, favoring the Liberty by 12 points in Game 1. New York’s first three meetings with the Dream were pretty simple – a 17-point win, a 21-point win and a six-point win. Shockingly, the two blowouts came in Atlanta. 

Let’s examine the odds, players to watch and my best bet for Game 1 of this No. 1 vs. No. 8 matchup. 

Dream vs. Liberty Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Dream +12 (-115)
• Liberty -12 (-105)

Moneyline

• Dream: +550
• Liberty: -800

Total

• 156.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Dream vs. Liberty How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, Sept. 22
• Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Barclays Center
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Series: Tied 0-0

Dream vs. Liberty Injury Reports

Dream Injury Report

• Cheyenne Parker-Tyus – out
• Aerial Powers – out

Liberty Injury Report

• None to report

Dream vs. Liberty Key Players to Watch

Atlanta Dream

Rhyne Howard: An All-Star, Howard will need to step up her game in the playoffs after shooting just 37.1 percent from the field and 32.9 percent from 3 in the regular season. In two games against the Liberty, she scored a total of 24 points. 

New York Liberty

Breanna Stewart: The league MVP last season, Stewart is looking to add a third WNBA Finals MVP to her resume this postseason. Stewie finished the regular season averaging 20.4 points, 8.5 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game, but she shot just 29.5 percent from 3. Against the Dream, Stewart scored at least 16 points in each game during the regular season. 

Dream vs. Liberty Prediction and Pick

When it comes to a side in this matchup, I actually lean with the Dream since the Liberty are just 5-16 against the spread at Barclays Center this season (they did not cover in either matchup at home against Atlanta in the regular season). 

That being said, I do wonder if the Liberty will find another gear in the postseason, so I’m actually going to look at the prop market for my best bet on Sunday. 

I absolutely love an assist prop for Liberty guard Sabrina Ionescu (OVER 6.5 assists), who only played 22 minutes in the regular season finale against Atlanta and still picked up seven dimes.

This season, Ionescu is averaging 6.2 assists per game, but she’s really taken things to another level recently, averaging 7.2 assists per game over her last nine contests, clearing this total in six of those games.

Ionescu has also struggled shooting the ball over that stretch (32.1 percent from the field), so it’s possible she’ll lean on her teammates a little more in Game 1.

Atlanta allows over 20 assists per game to opponents this season, and Ionescu has seven, four, 11 and five dimes against them in four meetings in 2024. At even money, she’s certainly worth a shot at this number. 

Pick: Sabrina Ionescu OVER 6.5 Assists (+100)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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