Duke vs. Houston Odds Make Massive Move Towards Blue Devils Ahead of Final Four

Brian Giuffra | Apr 4, 2025

Duke's odds of making the finals improved. / Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images

Duke’s odds to make the national championship have seen a dramatic turn since they first opened and it appears oddsmakers are more bullish than ever on Jon Scheyer’s team. 

Duke opened as a -4.5-point favorite against Houston in the Final Four and was -205 on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook. Since then, the Blue Devils have moved to a -5.5-point favorite and a whopping -270 on the moneyline. 

At FanDuel, they’re also -5.5 on the spread and -255 on the moneyline. The main difference here is Duke is even-money (+100) to cover the spread at DraftKings while they’re -106 at FanDuel. If you want to bet Duke to cover the spread, do it at DraftKings, but if you want to bet them on the moneyline the odds are more favorable on FanDuel. 

Overall, that’s a tremendous move in the odds. A -270 moneyline equates to a 73% implied probability that Duke will win the game outright. A -205 moneyline is a 67.2% implied probability, meaning oddsmakers now believe Duke has a 5.8% better chance of winning now than when they originally set the odds. 

It’s not hard to guess why. Duke has been the most impressive team in the tournament so far, dismissing Alabama in the Elite Eight behind a dominant second-half performance and hanging 100 points on Arizona in its Sweet 16 win. 

Houston had a similarly impressive win in the elite eight, holding Tennesee to 50 points in a 19-point win. It snuck by Purdue in the Sweet 16, 62-60.

That’s led to a lot of money and bets being placed on Duke. According to Ben Fawkes, Duke is the most heavily bet team in the Final Four based on total bets and total money. 

The big challenge for the Cougars is whether they can score with Duke, and it appears oddsmakers don’t think so. Their OVER/UNDER total points is set at 65.5 at FanDuel. 

Personally, I’m backing the Blue Devils at -5.5. Peter Dewey is also backing Duke in his betting preview. You can read that here. 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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