Duke vs. Ole Miss Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Gator Bowl

Reed Wallach | Dec 30, 2024

Nov 9, 2024; Oxford, Mississippi, USA; Mississippi Rebels quarterback Jaxson Dart (2) passes the ball during the second half against the Georgia Bulldogs at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images / Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

Ole Miss didn’t hit its goal of making the College Football Playoff but will have the ability to reach 10 wins and send out a handful of key contributors on a winning note.

The Rebels will have quarterback Jaxson Dart available for the Gator Bowl as he looks to close out his Ole Miss career with a win against Duke. The Blue Devils enjoyed a strong season under first-year head coach Manny Diaz but will be short-handed in this one with quarterback Maalik Murphy in the transfer portal.

Ole Miss is a big favorite in this one, can the team cover? Here’s our betting preview.

Duke vs. Ole Miss Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

Duke: +14.5 (-110)
Ole Miss: -14.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Duke: +480
Ole Miss: -690

Total: 52.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Duke vs. Ole Miss How to Watch

Date: Thursday, January 2nd
Game Time: 7:30 PM EST
Venue: Ever Bank Stadium
How to Watch (TV): ESPN
Duke Record: 9-3
Ole Miss Record: 9-3

Duke vs. Ole Miss Key Players to Watch

Duke

Henry Belin IV: The sophomore will start in place of Murphy, who opted out of this game to enter the transfer portal. He struggled in spot duty at times last season, featuring more skill as a runner than a passer in a win against NC State last season when he completed only four of his 12 pass attempts while running for 28 yards.

Ole Miss

Jaxson Dart: One of the most skilled passers in the country, Dart announced he will play in this bowl game as he looks to close out his Ole Miss career in style. The offense stalled at times in SEC play as the team battled injuries across the roster, but still posted a top-five PEA/Pass mark with Dart playing at an insanely high level.

Duke vs. Ole Miss Prediction and Pick

Duke has overachieved all season, just 67th in net EPA/Play while bolstering the second-worst EPA/Rush metric in the country.

The team will face an Ole Miss team that ranks top 10 in net EPA/Play and underachieved relative to its statistical profile, losing twice as big favorites to the likes of Kentucky and Florida that stunted its ability to make the CFP.

However, the roster is fully intact for this game and should have little issue overpowering Duke on both sides of the field.

With the Blue Devils having a backup quarterback in Belin, I don’t believe the team will hold up against the Ole Miss stout pass rush that has the most sacks in the country and has allowed less than 14 points per game on the year.

While Ole Miss’ offense struggled at times due to injuries all along the group, I still believe the team has plenty of firepower to pounce on a Duke team that isn’t going to be competitive on offense.

I think the Rebs are a good bet to cover, but my favorite bet is on the under as the team builds a big lead and suffocates the Blue Devils offense.

PICK: UNDER 52.5