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Every NFL Team’s Implied Probability to Make the Playoffs Based on Odds
The final phase of the NFL offseason is behind us following the schedule release for all 32 teams last week. Oddsmakers wasted no time listing playoff odds for every team and we’re going to use those odds to provide you with the implied probability of each team to make the playoffs.
For those who don’t know, implied probability in betting is simply the process of taking odds and converting them into a percentage which represents the likelihood of an outcome occurring. For instance, the Kansas City Chiefs are -450 to make the playoffs this coming season at FanDuel Sportsbook, which represents a 81.8% implied probability of them making the playoffs.
The Chiefs have the best odds to make the playoffs, which is no surprise considering they’ve won back-to-back Super Bowl titles and still have Pat Mahomes slinging the rock. There are, however, some big surprises when taking a look through this list, which we’ll get to in a second.
Below is the implied probability of every team in the NFL to make the 2024 NFL Playoffs. We used odds from FanDuel Sportsbook to calculate them with YES meaning they will make the playoffs and NO meaning they won’t.
Every NFL Team’s Implied Probability to Make the Playoffs (Odds)
Team | Implied Probability | Odds to Make | Odds to Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
Arizona Cardinals | 27.4% | +265 | -350 |
Atlanta Falcons | 71.0% | -245 | +194 |
Baltimore Ravens | 72.6% | -265 | +210 |
Buffalo Bills | 62.1% | -164 | +134 |
Carolina Panthers | 12.0% | +730 | -1300 |
Chicago Bears | 52.4% | -110 | -110 |
Cincinnati Bengals | 70.1% | -235 | +186 |
Cleveland Browns | 42.4% | +136 | -168 |
Dallas Cowboys | 70.7% | -240 | +190 |
Denver Broncos | 14.5% | +590 | -950 |
Detroit Lions | 67.2% | -205 | +164 |
Green Bay Packers | 61.8% | -162 | +132 |
Houston Texans | 65.8% | -192 | +154 |
Indianapolis Colts | 41.3% | +142 | -176 |
Jacksonville Jaguars | 44.2% | +126 | -154 |
Kansas City Chiefs | 81.8% | -450 | +330 |
Las Vegas Raiders | 23.8% | +320 | -430 |
Los Angeles Chargers | 51.5% | -106 | -115 |
Los Angeles Rams | 49.5% | +102 | -124 |
Miami Dolphins | 56.1% | -128 | +104 |
MInnesota Vikings | 26.0% | +285 | -385 |
New England Patriots | 9.8% | +920 | -2000 |
New Orleans Saints | 36.8% | +172 | -220 |
New York Giants | 18.5% | +440 | -650 |
New York Jets | 59.0% | -144 | +118 |
Philadelphia Eagles | 68.8% | -220 | +172 |
Pittsburgh Steelers | 37.9% | +164 | -205 |
San Francisco 49ers | 81.1% | -430 | +320 |
Seattle Seahawks | 34.0% | +194 | -245 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 41.0% | +144 | -178 |
Tennessee Titans | 18.9% | +430 | -620 |
Washington Commanders | 24.4% | +310 | -420 |
There are four teams who made the playoffs in 2023 that are not expected to make them in 2024 based on these odds – the Los Angeles Rams, Pittsburgh Steelers, Cleveland Browns and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. All of them are plus-odds underdogs.
The New York Jets, Los Angeles Chargers, Cincinnati Bengals and Chicago Bears are currently listed as a favorite or pick 'em to make the playoffs after missing them last year.
The Jets and Bengals make sense as they’ll get back Aaron Rodgers and Joe Burrow, respectively, after both missed most or all of last season. The Chargers hired John Harbaugh, who has had instant success everywhere he’s coached, so that makes sense too. The most intriguing are the Bears.
The Bears drafted USC QB Caleb Williams No. 1 overall this year after a transformative offseason that included adding RB D'Andre Swift and WRs Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze to an offense already featuring DJ Moore and Cole Kmet. Williams will have plenty of pressure to deliver right away and anyone betting on them to make the playoffs is relying on him to do so.
If you think that happens, you might be better off betting Williams to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at +170 odds, which is better than the -110 odds for the Bears to make the playoffs.
It was also interesting to note the Browns at +136 to make the playoffs. They have a talented offense and playoff experience having made the postseason last season. Deshaun Watson’s performance will likely dictate how far this team goes.
With the biggest free agents off the board and the draft behind us, these odds will likely change only due to injury until preseason begins. One thing is certain, a team that is an outright favorite to make the playoffs will miss it and a team that’s an underdog to make the playoffs will do so. The hard part is picking the winners.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Brian Giuffra is the VP of Betting Content at Minute Media and has been with the company since 2016. He's a fan of the Knicks, Giants, wine and bourbon, usually consuming them in that order.