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Expert NFL Upset Betting Picks for Week 5 (Jet Will Take Down Vikings in London)

The Sports Illustrated team breaks down their favorite upset picks for Week 5 of the 2024 NFL Season

SI Staff

The Sports Illustrated team breaks down their favorite upset picks for Week 5 of the 2024 NFL season.
The Sports Illustrated team breaks down their favorite upset picks for Week 5 of the 2024 NFL season. /

Underdogs have got off to a hot start to begin the 2024 NFL season. If you like betting on underdogs to win outright, you're probably a pretty happy bettor at this point.

Throughout the season, the Sports Illustrated team picking their favorite underdog bets each week. In Week 4, Albert Breer nailed his upset pick taking the Vikings to beat the Packers and Gilberto Manzano also cashed his, taking the Buccaneers to beat the Eagles.

Let's take a look at where everyone stands with their upset picks so far this season:

We move on to Week 5 and the entire team is back to break down their favorite upset picks. The odds listed below are via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Albert Breer Week 4 Upset Pick

Bengals (+120) vs. Ravens

I think both these teams are going to be there in the end—and this, to me, is a reflection of the team that needs a win worse pulling it out at home. Both of these groups came into the season needing development from younger guys in key spots. The Ravens have gotten it on the offensive line, and at linebacker (and with their new defensive coordinator, too). The Bengals will need it from guys like Kris Jenkins, D.J. Turner, and Cam Taylor-Britt on defense this week. I think they’ll get it.

Conor Orr Week 4 Upset Pick

Jets (+124) vs. Vikings

London games are weird, man. That’s all I can say. Bad sleep. A less than desirable accommodation somewhere. Who knows what the situation is? I’ve been there, I’ve seen the whole situation up close and I know it’s not smooth sailing for teams all the time. And so, that’s my wholly unscientific basis for this. Maybe the Vikings will get bad sleep and simply not get off the plane. Maybe they showed something against a common opponent in San Francisco that the Jets can take advantage of. 

Matt Verderame Week 4 Upset Pick

Colts (+130) vs. Jaguars

Why is Jacksonville favored? Have the oddsmakers watched the Jaguars? They stink in almost every way possible. The coaching is poor, the $275 million quarterback is struggling to complete passes (54.6% completion rate), and the defense is a tire fire (30th overall). Other than that, things are great. Whether Anthony Richardson or Joe Flacco starts, the Colts are legitimately better than Jacksonville, even with a 32nd-ranked defense. They’re also wildly better on the sideline. Take Indianapolis to make Doug Pederson’s seat just a little bit hotter.

Mitch Goldich Week 4 Upset Pick

Patriots (-105) vs. Dolphins

note: The Patriots were underdogs but the line has since flipped. New England is now favored.

Consider this a pick against the Dolphins, not exactly a vote of confidence in the Patriots. Miami has played nine quarters since Tua Tagovailoa suffered his concussion midway through Week 2, and the team has 15 points since (three of which came after a turnover inside the 10-yard line!). With Skylar Thompson sidelined, Tyler Huntley was held under 100 passing yards Monday against the Titans, and it’s not because they stuck to a thriving rushing game (30 carries for 106 yards).

This is a totally disorganized team now on its fourth quarterback. These are the kind of teams you expect to lose, and it’s hard to believe they are favored. The Patriots have their own issues (read: protecting Jacoby Brissett), but we have seen them look competitive more recently and they will be at home against an opponent on short rest.

Gilberto Manzano Week 4 Upset Pick

Cowboys (+120) vs. Steelers

The Cowboys’ struggling defense might have caught the Steelers at the right time because they’re dealing with many key injuries on the offensive line. If the Steelers can’t run the football, perhaps the two-man show of Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb can generate enough points against a stout Pittsburgh defense to steal this Week 5 road matchup. Also, the Steelers’ defense had trouble containing Michael Pittman Jr. in last week’s loss against the Indianapolis Colts. Justin Fields has played well this season in Pittsburgh, but he tends to have up-and-down performances throughout the season. 

Peter Dewey Week 4 Upset Pick

Colts (+130) vs. Jaguars

The wheels have fallen off in Jacksonville, as Doug Pederson’s group is 0-4 on the season and hasn’t shown any signs of life on either side of the ball. The Jaguars rank 29th in the NFL in yards per play allowed on defense and have the 10th-fewest yards per play on offense so far in 2024. 

Now, they’re favored at home against the 2-2 Indianapolis Colts, who looked solid with Joe Flacco under center in Week 4 after Anthony Richardson was injured. If Flacco starts, I think the Colts’ passing game will get a boost against the Jaguars, who have allowed 1,091 passing yards this season – the second most in the NFL. 

Until the Jags prove that they can play winning football – they haven’t at all in 2024 – there’s no way that I’m laying points with them.

Jennifer Piacenti Week 4 Upset Pick

Jets (+124) vs. Vikings

The Vikings have been off to an incredible start to the season, joining the Chiefs as the only 4-0 team.  

However, the Jets are in a better spot across the pond.

The Vikings have allowed the most passing yards (1188) and passing completions (109) with six passing touchdowns through the first four games. Aaron Rodgers should be able to feast.

On the other side, the Jets have allowed just 663 passing yards, 66 completions, and an average of just 5.58 yards per attempt to opposing passers.    Darnold’s ceiling should be limited, and though the Vikings could still use Aaron Jones effectively, Rodgers should still come out on top.

Iain MacMillan Week 4 Upset Pick

Cowboys (+120) vs. Steelers

The Dallas Cowboys are going to have a coming-out party sooner or later and it could be on Sunday night. Their biggest weakness is their inability to run the football effectively or stop the run on defense. Luckily for them, the Steelers can't run the football offensively and can be had through the air defensively.

That adds up to the Cowboys having a great stylistic matchup in this interconference showdown.

While Justin Fields and the Pittsburgh offensive has been effective, it's been tough to totally trust them. They're 21st in yards per play (4.9), 20th in EPA/Play, and 21st in Success Rate. We should also keep in mind they haven't exactly had a tough start to their schedule with their toughest games coming against a Falcons team in Kirk Cousins' first start with the team and a Chargers team who didn't have Justin Herbert for the majority of the game.

It's time to sell your stock on the Steelers and take the Cowboys as underdogs on Sunday Night Football.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!

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