Falcons Super Bowl Odds Make Major Shift After Taking NFC South Lead

Iain MacMillan | Oct 7, 2024

Oct 3, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons wide receiver KhaDarel Hodge (12) reacts after scoring the game winning touchdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in overtime at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images / Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

The Atlanta Falcons only know how to play in games that come down to the wire. All five of their contests have been one score games and none were more exciting than Week 5 Thursday Night Football duel against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Kirk Cousins led the Falcons to a game-tying drive and then he hit Khadarel Hodge in overtime for a walk-off touchdown. Now, the Falcons sit at 3-2 and are in sole possession of first place in the NFC South. As a result, it's not just their division odds that have improved, but their odds to win Super Bowl 59 have taken a big step forward as well.

Atlanta Falcons Super Bowl Odds

• Falcons to Win Super Bowl 59: +2800

At FanDuel Sportsbook, the Falcons' Super Bowl odds have improved from +3000 to +2800 after Thursday night's win.

Atlanta is still behind a handful of teams in the NFC in the latest odds to win the Super Bowl. The 49ers (+700), Lions (+1100), Vikings (+1200), Cowboys (+2500), and Packers (+2500) all have better odds than Atlanta. With that being said, if they continue to win, they'll be in a great position to host a playoff game by winning the NFC South.

NFC South Odds

• Falcons +115
• Saints +210
• Buccaneers +280
• Panthers +2300

Through the first five weeks, the Falcons are now +115 favorites to win the division. If you translate those odds to implied probability, the Falcons have a 46.51% chance of capturing the division crown.

The biggest issue for the Falcons moving forward is their strength of schedule. Before the season began, the Falcons had the easiest schedule in the NFL based on their opponent's projected win total. It was believed that after a tough gauntlet in the first five weeks, they'd have their schedule become wide open in the second two thirds of the season.

Unfortunately for them, the teams that were supposed to be bad have turned out to be extremely good. The Vikings, Commanders, Seahawks, and Broncos, who were previously looked at as automatic wins, are now all going to be tough challenges as all four teams hold a winning record. All of a sudden, the Falcons have the seventh most difficult remaining schedule based on opponent win percentage.

Atlanta will be in the mix down the stretch, but for the sake of Falcons fan's health, it would be nice to see them win by a comfortable margin instead of waiting until the last play of the game.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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