Falcons vs. Broncos Final Score Prediction for NFL Week 11 (Can Atlanta Cover Sunday?)

Peter Dewey | 2 Hours Ago

Atlanta Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins. / Matthew Hinton-Imagn Images

The Denver Broncos are slight favorites in Week 11 after their heartbreaking loss to the Kansas City Chiefs – Will Lutz’s game-winning field goal was blocked as time expired. 

Now, Denver is expected to win – in the eyes of oddsmakers – against the NFC South-leading Atlanta Falcons on Sunday. Atlanta is coming off a tough loss to the New Orleans Saints, but it still has a solid cushion in arguably the easiest division in the NFL. 

Can Kirk Cousins and company pull off an upset and put Denver’s playoff hopes in jeopardy? 

Using the latest odds and analysis, I’m predicting the final score for this Week 11 matchup between Denver and Atlanta. 

Falcons vs. Broncos Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Falcons +2.5 (-112)
• Broncos -2.5 (-108)

Moneyline

• Falcons: +114
• Broncos: -135

Total

• 44 (Over -112/Under -108)

In the Sean Payton era, Denver is 5-5 against the spread as a home favorite, and it’s an impressive 7-3 against the spread this season. Meanwhile, the Falcons are 5-5 against the spread this season, including a 1-0 ATS record as road dogs.  

Falcons vs. Broncos Final Score Prediction

SI Betting’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan thinks that the Falcons are live to pull off the upset in this matchup, and he broke down why in his Road to 272 column – where he picks every NFL game, every week:

No one has bet on the Denver Broncos more than I have this season, but it's time for me to flip sides and take the Falcons. Some mixed results in the past few weeks have distracted people from the fact that the Falcons offense ranks third in EPA per play and second in offensive success rate, dating back to Week 5.

Yes, the Broncos' defense is elite, but the Falcons have too many weapons at different positions and can find their way to score points.

The biggest concern when it comes to betting on the Falcons is their defense, which has been a subpar unit this season, but one that continues to find ways to make halftime adjustments and come out strong from the locker room. In fact, they allow the ninth fewest second-half points per game at 9.1. They have faced plenty of strong offenses this season, but the Broncos won't be one of them.

MacMillan may not be sold on the Broncos here, but I still think they win this game – even if they don’t cover. Denver is coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, and I think the Denver defense can give Kirk Cousins some issues after he had a down game in Week 10 against New Orleans.

The Falcons keep it close, but I’m taking Denver to win for the third time this season at home. 

Final Score Prediction: Broncos 19, Falcons 17

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