Falcons vs. Commanders Final Score Prediction for Sunday Night Football in NFL Week 17

Can Washington move to 6-2 against the spread as a home favorite?

Can Washington move to 6-2 against the spread as a home favorite? / Amber Searls-Imagn Images

 Playoff position in the NFC is on the line on Sunday Night Football, as the Washington Commanders are looking to clinch a wild card spot against the Atlanta Falcons. 

Washington picked up a massive comeback win over the Philadelphia Eagles – behind five touchdown passes from Jayden Daniels – to move to 10-5 on the season. Still, in a loaded NFC, that’s only good for the seventh and final playoff spot in the conference right now.

Meanwhile, the Atlanta Falcons won in Michael Penix Jr.’s first NFL start on Sunday, taking the NFC South in the lead in the process. Atlanta has now won two games in a row, and it took back first in the NFC South with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers losing to Dallas on Sunday night. 

Atlanta has the tiebreaker over the Bucs, so all it needs to do is finish with the same record and it’ll take home the division crown – and a playoff spot. 

Oddsmakers have Washington favored on Sunday night, but can Jayden Daniels outduel his fellow 2024 NFL Draft mate?

Using the latest odds and analysis, I’m attempting to predict the final score of this matchup to give bettors an idea of which side to bet on for this matchup. 

Falcons vs. Commanders Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Falcons +4 (-108)
• Commanders -4 (-112)

Moneyline

• Falcons: +154
• Commanders: -185

Total

• 47.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

The Commanders are an impressive 5-2 against the spread as home favorites this season, they’ve covered six of nine games when favored overall. 

Atlanta is just 1-2 against the spread as a road underdog, posting an average scoring margin of -17.3 points in those games. 

Falcons vs. Commanders Final Score Prediction

Earlier this week in his Road to 272 column, SI Betting’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan shared why he thinks the Commanders will take this matchup:

The Falcons control their destiny entering the final weeks, but they have a tough test ahead of them in the Washington Commanders. Unfortunately, this is a nightmare matchup for the Falcons. They have historically struggled against quarterbacks who can scramble and their defense which hasn't been able to consistently put pressure on opposing passers is going to open them up for Jayden Daniels to attack them in several different ways on Sunday night.

Offensively, Michael Penix Jr. wasn't asked to do much in Week 16 against the Giants and while the easy first start was beneficial for him, this is a huge step up in competition. A road prime-time game against one of the better teams in the NFL with a playoff spot on the line may prove to be too much for the rookie in his second start.

Considering the Commanders have an elite offense, the Falcons aren't going to be able to rely on their defense to win this game for them. Penix Jr. will have to step up and I have concerns surrounding his ability to do so, especially with Drake London dealing with a banged-up hamstring. The Commanders rank third in opponent dropback success rate since Week 10.

Since Washington has dominated against the spread at home – and as a favorite – I don’t mind laying the points on Sunday night.

Final Score Prediction: Commanders 24, Falcons 19

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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