Falcons vs. Commanders Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 17

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Atlanta Falcons-Washington Commanders matchup in NFL Week 17.

Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels had led his team to 5-2 ATS record as home favorites. / Peter Casey-Imagn Images

Major playoff implications are on the line on Sunday Night Football, as the Washington Commanders (10-5) look to lock up a wild card spot against the Atlanta Falcons (8-7).

Atlanta is now atop the NFC South after the Tampa Bay Buccaneers lost in Week 16, and if the Falcons win out – they’ll win the division.

Rookie Michael Penix Jr. made his first start of his NFL career in Week 16, but it was two defensive touchdowns that helped the Falcons dominate the New York Giants.

Meanwhile, fellow rookie Jayden Daniels threw for five scores in a comeback win over the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 16. Daniels is the favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, and he’s made big play after big play all season for this Washington team.

Oddsmakers have favored the Commanders by four at home, but can they spoil the Falcons’ playoff hopes?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch, injury reports, my prediction, and more for this Week 17 clash. 

Falcons vs. Commanders Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Falcons +4 (-108)
• Commanders -4 (-112)

Moneyline

• Falcons: +160
• Commanders: -192

Total

• 47 (Over -110/Under -110)

Falcons vs. Commanders How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, Dec. 29
• Time: 8:20 p.m. EST
• Venue: Northwest Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): NBC/Peacock
• Falcons record: 8-7
• Commanders record: 10-5

Falcons vs. Commanders Betting Trends

• The Commanders are 5-2 against the spread as home favorites this season.
• Washington is 9-5-1 against the spread overall.
• The Falcons are 1-0 against the spread in Michael Penix Jr.’s starts.
• The Falcons are 6-8 against the spread overall this season.
• Atlanta is 1-2 against the spread as a road underdog in 2024.
• The OVER is 10-5 in Washington’s 15 games.
• The UNDER is 10-5 in Atlanta’s 15 games. 

Falcons vs. Commanders Injury Report

Falcons Injury Report

• Drake London – questionable
• Antonio Hamilton Sr. – questionable

Commanders Injury Report

• Dyami Brown  – questionable
• Marshon Lattimore  – questionable
• Jordan Magee  – questionable

Falcons vs. Commanders Key Players to Watch

Atlanta Falcons

Bijab Robinson: With Penix under center in Week 16, the Falcons leaned on the running game and former first-round pick Bijan Robinson. The former University of Texas star carried the ball 22 times for 94 yards and two scores. He’s up to 1,196 yards and 10 rushing touchdowns on the season.

Washington Commanders

Jayden Daniels: Daniels likely locked up the Offensive Rookie of the Year award in Week 16. He threw five scores, including on a game-winning drive with less than 10 seconds to play. Now, Washington has a chance to lock up a playoff spot in Week 17. 

Falcons vs. Commanders Prediction and Pick

Atlanta’s play – specifically on defense – was encouraging in Week 16 after a brutal stretch earlier this month nearly cost the team the division.

However, I am worried about the Falcons against a Washington squad that has thrived at home, going 5-2 against the spread as home favorites. 

The Commanders’ offense finally had a big game in Week 16 after some disheartening performances, and I don’t believe Daniels will struggle nearly as much as New York’s Drew Lock did in Week 16. 

Penix played decently as more of a game manager, and the Falcons still should be able to run the ball on a Washington defense that is allowing 4.8 yards per carry this season.

Despite that, I’m going to side with the more known quality at quarterback in this one. We have yet to see Penix play a playoff opponent on the road, and Daniels and the Commanders are outsourcing their opponents as home favorites by an average margin of 10.6 points per game. 

Pick: Commanders -4 (-112)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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