FedEx St. Jude Championship Betting Preview: Predictions, Best Bets and Odds for TPC Southwind

Five bets to consider making for the first round of the PGA Tour playoffs.

Keep an eye on Sungjae Im this week. / ANDRES LEIVA/PALM BEACH POST / USA TODAY NETWORK

The PGA Tour playoffs have arrived and the SI Betting team is coming off a winning pick at the Wyndham Championship with Iain MacMillan correctly betting on Aaron Rai at +3500 odds. We’ll try and make it two outrights in a row with a few other bets to consider as we preview the FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind. 

Since becoming the FedEx St. Jude Championship in 2019, TPC Southwind has proven to be a ball-strikers paradise. Prime Will Zalatoris, a red-hot Lucas Glover and ball-striking wizards Justin Thomas and Brooks Koepka are among the winners here. I emphasize that because I’m focused on shots-gained off-the-tee, shots-gained tee-to-green and shots-gained approach coupled with course history performance and recent form in my handicapping.  

More on that in a second. 

It’s a smaller field with only 70 players entered and no cut after 36 holes. Only the top 50 advance to the BMW Championship after this tournament, so there is a lot on the line despite no formal cut. 

Let’s get into the betting preview starting with odds, which all come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

FedEx St. Jude Championship Odds

• Scottie Scheffler (+360)
• Xander Schauffele (+700)
• Rory McIlroy (+850)
• Collin Morikawa (+1200)
• Ludvig Åberg (+2000)
• Patrick Cantlay (+2200)
• Tommy Fleetwood (+2500)
• Hideki Matsuyama (+3300)
• Viktor Hovland (+3500)
• Tom Kim (+3500)
• Tony Finau (+3500)
• Russell Henley (+3500)
• Justin Thomas (+4000)
• Corey Conners (+4000)

It’s wild to see anyone with as short of odds as Scheffler heading into a tournament, but then again he just won Olympic gold with a Sunday 62 and has won six times on Tour this year. He also has two runner-ups and 14 Top 10s. Schauffele has won two majors this year but no other tournaments and McIlroy has two wins with his last coming in May. 

FedEx St. Jude Championship How to Watch

Thursday: 2 p.m.–6 p.m. (Golf Channel)
Friday: 2 p.m.–6 p.m. (Golf Channel)
Saturday: 1 p.m.–3 p.m. (Golf Channel/Peacock), 3 p.m.–6 p.m. (CBS)
Sunday: Noon–2 p.m. (Golf Channel/Peacock), 2 p.m.–6 p.m. (CBS)

FedEx St. Jude Championship Purse

Date: Thursday, Aug. 8–Sunday, Aug. 11
Purse: $20 million ($3.6 million to the winner)
Defending champion: Lucas Glover
Course: TPC Southwind

Wyndham Championship Notable Golfers

All the biggest names (outside of LIV) are in the field, headlined by the aforementioned trio of Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele and Rory McIlroy. 

Behind them are the normal notables you expect: Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Ludvig Åberg, Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland. 

Jordan Spieth is also in the field, though he’s 63rd in the FedEx Cup standings and needs a good finish to advance to the next round of the playoffs. 

Wyndham Championship Best Bets

Rory McIlroy Top 10 (-105)

Mcilroy missed out on a playoff by one stroke last year and has the fifth-best strokes-gained total results at the FedEx St. Jude overall according to BetSperts. He also just finished T5 at the Olympics, T-4 at the Scottish Open and second at the U.S. Open. 

It’s impossible to ignore his missed cut at the British Open and his wild OB miss at the Olympics after he clawed his way into contention on Sunday. Simply put, McIlroy seems to have issues closing at the moment, a fact never more apparent than at the U.S. Open when he missed two short par putts and blew a Sunday lead. 

However, his overall stat profile (first strokes-gained off-the-tee, second strokes-gained tee-to-green, third strokes-gained total) showcases he’s having an unbelievable ball-striking season. At nearly even money, I’ll bank on that carrying McIlroy to the top of the leaderboard. 

Sungjae Im Top 10 (+320)

Im placed T6 and T2 at this event the last two years. He’s also a consistent ball striker, ranking in the Top 30 in all of the aforementioned shots-gained categories I value at TPC Southwind. That combo is enough for me, though there is more. 

Although he faded with a Sunday 72 at the Wyndham Championship last week, that was an outlier as players needed to complete 36 holes in one day. Before that, he finished T7 at the Open Championship, T4 at the Scottish Open, T12 at the John Deere and T3 at the Travelers. On the season, he has seven top-10 finishes. 

At +320, this feels like solid value. 

Wyndham Championship Picks and Prediction

Sungjae Im (+4500)

In addition to betting him to place top 10, I’m also going to sprinkle a half unit on Im to win. While he hasn’t closed a tournament this year, he has two wins in his career. His last was in 2021. 

Closing isn’t an issue. Outside of the marathon finish at the Wyndham, Im has shot in the 60s on Sunday in his previous four rounds and seven of eight over the weekend. 

He’s an accurate driver of the ball (64.42% fairways), which is important because of all the water on the course, and he’s also excellent around the greens, ranking 37th in scrambling. 

Sahith Theegala (+4500)

I’ve bet Theegala outrights a few times this year and it hasn’t paid off. I’m not ready to get off the train quite yet and believe my patience will be rewarded. 

Theegala was T6 at the 3M two weeks ago and T4 at the Scottish Open. A missed cut at the Open Championship was a blemish, but his ball striking this year is undeniable. 

He’s ninth in strokes-gained total and 17th strokes-gained off-the-tee. His strokes-gained approach is 42nd, though he’s made up for it with the putter, ranking 19th strokes-gained putting. 

Southwind is similar to TPC Sawgrass with all its water and the importance of positional tee shots and Theegala finished T9 there this year. Add it all up and I can’t jump off the bandwagon quite yet. 

Billy Horschel (+5000) 

We all remember Horschel’s T2 finish at Royal Troon. Perhaps no one, outside of the winner Schauffele, controlled their ball better in poor conditions than Horschel that week. 

What went more under the radar was his T7 finish at the Wyndham Championship last week. He opened with 62, closed with 67 and was once again one of the most consistent ball strikers in the field. 

Horschel is 22nd in strokes-gained total on the season and 10th in strokes-gained putting. He’s not the longest driver on Tour, which hurts his strokes-gained off-the-tee (61st), but he's is accurate, ranking 37th on Tour in driving accuracy at 64.67%. That is more important than distance at a course that measures just over 7,200 yards. 

Horschel didn’t qualify for this event last year and missed the cut in 2022. He does have a T9 on his resume in 2019 and a T17 in 2021. With the way he’s playing, this feels worthy of a sprinkle. 

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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