​​FedEx St. Jude Longshot Betting: A 70-to-1 Pick to Win the PGA Tour Playoff Opener

Looking for back-to-back longshots to win this event.

Sepp Straka / Rob Schumacher-USA TODAY Network

The FedEx St. Jude Championship produced a longshot winner last year when Lucas Glover claimed the title at 60-to-1 odds. There’s no reason a repeat can’t happen again, and I’m targeting a player with 70-to-1 odds and a strong course history at TPC Southwind to bring home the bacon. 

It won’t be easy, of course. Scottie Scheffler has won four of the PGA Tour’s eight signature events this year plus the Masters and Olympic gold. Rory McIlroy won another signature event and has dominated the FedEx Cup Playoffs through the years. Xander Schauffele's won two majors this season. That trio headlines this year’s tournament and are clear favorites to win this tournament. 

With that in mind, let’s look at the odds, which I pulled from FanDuel Sportsbook. 

PGA Tour FedEx St. Jude Odds

• Scottie Scheffler (+330)
• Xander Schauffele (+700)
• Rory McIlroy (+850)
• Collin Morikawa (+1200)
• Ludvig Åberg (+2000)
• Patrick Cantlay (+2200)
• Tommy Fleetwood (+2500)
• Hideki Matsuyama (+2800)
• Tom Kim (+3000)
• Corey Conners (+3500)
• Russell Henley (+3500)

As you can see, it’s a very top-heavy event, with the three favorites offering less than 10-to-1 odds. Ironically enough, I didn’t pick any of them in my betting preview, instead targeting three players with +4500 odds or longer. You can read that piece by clicking here. 

My handicapping process for this event was focused on the major shots-gained statistics added together with course history and recent form. In doing that research I also found a golfer with +7000 odds who satisfies those criteria. 

​​FedEx St. Jude Longshot Pick

Sepp Straka is one of the most underrated players on Tour but could have a breakout moment here. He finished second at this event two years ago and historically plays well on Bermudagrass setups, which TPC Southwind is. 

At this year's Players, he was T16. At last year's Tour Championship, he was T14. He won the 2022 Honda Classic. What do all those have in common? Bermudagrass greens. 

Beyond his positive history on courses like this, Straka is currently playing exceptional golf. He was T22 at the British Open and T35 at the Olympics. This season, he has four top-10 finishes, including a T5 at the Memorial. 

The stats confirm he fits the model. Straka is 34th on Tour in shots-gained approach and 39th in shots-gained off-the-tee. He’s No. 1 on Tour in driving accuracy. Those are key metrics on a course with as much water as TPC Southwind.   

I also considered Max Homa (+10000) and Alex Noren (+11000) as other longshots, but Straka’s numbers stood out more than theirs. He’s won two tournaments before, he’s playing great right now and has a strong history on this course.

I won’t break the bank on him, but I will sprinkle in hopes of a repeat surprise winner at this event.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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