Fever vs. Sun Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for WNBA Playoffs Game 1

Can Caitlin Clark and the Fever cover the spread as road underdogs?

Indiana Fever guard Caitlin Clark. / Grace Smith/USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images

The Connecticut Sun are looking to get back to the WNBA Finals for the second time in three years when they begin their playoff run against Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever on Sunday afternoon.

Connecticut earned the No. 3 seed in the WNBA, winning on the final day of the regular season to hold off the Las Vegas Aces, and it enters this matchup with the upstart Fever as a five-point favorite. 

Indiana played some of the best basketball in the W after a slow start, going 19-12 over its final  31 games. While the Fever did not beat the Sun until their fourth and final meeting in the regular season, Indiana had the No. 1 offensive rating in the league after the Olympic break.

That’s what makes this such a great matchup.

Indiana plays at the No. 2 pace in the league and is an elite offense, while the Sun are No. 1 in defensive rating and dead last in the W in pace.

When it comes to betting on Game 1, I’ve got you covered. Here’s a breakdown of the latest odds, key players to watch and my prediction for Sunday afternoon’s matchup. 

Fever vs. Sun Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Fever +5 (-108)
• Sun -5 (-112)

Moneyline

• Fever: +180
• Sun: -218

Total

• 163.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Fever vs. Sun How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, Sept. 22
• Time: 3:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Mohegan Sun Arena
• How to Watch (TV): ABC
• Series: Tied 0-0

Fever vs. Sun Injury Reports

Fever Injury Report

• None to report

Sun Injury Report

• Tiffany Mitchell – out

Fever vs. Sun Key Players to Watch

Indiana Fever

Caitlin Clark: The Sun have given the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 WNBA Draft some serious issues this season. In four games, Clark is averaging just 16.5 points, 2.0 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game while turning the ball over 25 times. Still, Clark had an unreal finish to the season after the Olympic break, averaging 23.1 points, 5.4 rebounds and 8.9 assists per game across 14 contests. 

Connecticut Sun

Marina Mabrey: Traded to Connecticut in the middle of the season, Mabrey is the scoring punch that the Sun need to compete for a title. After the trade, she averaged 14.9 points, 3.5 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game while shooting 46.7 percent from the field and 42.4 percent from 3. It’ll be interesting to see how much she plays in the postseason rotation. 

Fever vs. Sun Prediction and Pick

Connecticut has given Clark some problems this season, but that doesn’t mean that you should be out on the Fever. 

I went back and forth between a prop and a side in this matchup, but ultimately I think the Indiana Fever can cover on Sunday.

These teams only played on time after early June, and the Fever won that game by four points at home.

Indiana has been a totally different team since the Olympic break, ranking No. 1 in the league in offensive rating and cracking the top five in net rating over its last 15 games.

Meanwhile, the Sun have struggled when it comes to covering the spread at home. CT is just 7-3 ATS at Mohegan Sun Arena and a pedestrian 15-16 ATS as a favorite in 2024. 

These teams are the ultimate contrast of style, but I do think the Fever can speed the Sun up a little – if their offense gets going early. 

I was debating a play on the total in this game, but all of the games between these teams have been right around 163 points. I really think Indiana deserves some love for the strong finish it had in the regular season, and it should be able to hang within two possessions on Sunday. 

Pick: Fever +5 (-108)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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