First to Forde: Best College Football Picks Against the Spread for Week 14

Reed Wallach | 3 Hours Ago

SI

With the final week of the regular upon us we are close to a winner in our race to 40.

SI Betting Insider Reed Wallach is off a strong week that improved his record to 39 wins out of 65 picks this seasn, pulling ahead of SI Senior Writer Pat Forde, who is at an impressive 33 out of 65. With five picks left in the regular season, where will the two finish after 14 weeks?

With plenty of rivalry matchups on tap for this weekend with differing stakes -- bowl eligibility, conference titles, and College Football Playoff -- here's our picks for the final week of the season.

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Pat Forde's Pick Against the Spread

Pat's Wins: 33

Nebraska vs. Iowa Prediction and Pick

Pick: Iowa -5.5

The Hawkeyes have won every Big Ten home game by at least 24 points. The Cornhuskers have lost three straight Big Ten road games. Kirk Ferentz and defensive coordinator Phil Parker will have some stuff for freshman Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola, and the Iowa running game should be enough to carry the day in a chilly, low-scoring game.

Georgia Tech vs. Georgia Prediction and Pick

Pick: Georgia Tech +19.5

The Bulldogs have been an inconsistent team after years of previous dependability, and this is a very big number. Meanwhile, the Yellow Jackets have been upset kings under Brent Key. Tech freshman quarterback Aaron Philo keeps getting better, providing a change-of-pace spark to veteran Haynes King. The Jackets also have been off since last Thursday, so they’ve got a rest advantage over Georgia.

Miami (Florida) vs. Syracuse Prediction and Pick

Pick: Syracuse +11

Everything is on the line for the Hurricanes, but this is a trappy situation – on the road against a good team in what can be a loud environment. I’m expecting a shootout between Kyle McCord and Cam Ward, two quarterbacks who will air it out and take chances in the process. Miami will probably win, but giving more than 10 points is a lot.

Clemson vs. South Carolina Prediction and Pick

Pick: South Carolina +3

The Gamecocks are one of the hottest teams in the country and they still have something to play for on the fringe of the playoff. Of course, Clemson is on said fringe as well, but South Carolina has turbo-charged its offense over the last month. They’ve had four straight games averaging seven yards per play, as quarterback LaNorris Sellers has taken off as a dual-threat menace.

Texas vs. Texas A&M Prediction and Pick

Pick: Texas -5.5

Nobody will be lacking any motivation here, with so much to play for. But Texas A&M played over its head for weeks but has come back to reality in losing its last two SEC games. The Aggies gave up 999 total yards and seven yards per play to South Carolina and Auburn. Texas has better personnel, and more experienced big-game personnel, having won the Big 12 last year and played in the College Football Playoff.

Reed Wallach's Picks Against the Spread

Reed's Wins: 39

Georgia Tech vs. Georgia Prediction and Pick

Pick: Georgia Tech +19.5

Brent Key’s Yellow Jackets continues to be a fantastic underdog bet in his tenure. 

Georgia Tech is 13-6 against the number when catching points, including 10 outright upsets. While I won’t go for the moneyline here, I do think there are avenues to the Ramblin’ Wreck keeping it close. 

First, the team has found its footing despite quarterback Haynes King being compromised. The team has used freshman Andrew Philo on passing downs most of the time and he has showcased a lively arm. While this is a big step up in competition, the Georgia rush defense has lacked discipline of late, including letting up more than 200 yards on the ground to UMass last week. 

On the other side, the Yellow Jackets defense has been sturdy all season, 54th in EPA/Play and incredibly strong against the run. With Georgia unable to get a push on the ground, the team can be behind the sticks early and often where a still shaky passing game may fail to help this team get margin. 

Look for Georgia Tech to shorten this game and stay competitive in this one with Georgia possibly eyeing the SEC Championship Game next season. 

Michigan vs. Ohio State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Ohio State -20.5

We saw at the end of Ohio State’s Week 13 top five win against Indiana, the Buckeyes are interested in getting margin on its opponent, punching in a late score in the final minutes.

Outside of the first drive of the game, where the elite offense of the Hoosiers marched down the field for 70 yards, the team averaged less than two yards per play. 

The Buckeyes defense will have little issue shutting down the Michigan offense that lacks any viable passing game, ranking 116th in EPA/Play, and getting ahead in this one. 

The blitz-happy Michigan defense has been potent at times, but I’m not sure the team can overwhelm Will Howard and a short-handed Buckeyes offensive line. The Kansas State transfer has posted a 72% completion percentage and a passer grade of 80.4 when blitzed this season, passing for 14 touchdowns and only one interception, per Pro Football Focus. 

If last week was any indication, Ohio State won’t let up at home.

Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt Prediction and Pick

Pick: Vanderbilt +11

Vanderbilt has done a remarkable job all season with limiting big plays and the amount of possessions in the game as the team has limited mistakes and been able to stay on the field. 

With fewer possessions, its harder to get margin on a team if it's able to get timely stops. While the Tennessee defensive line is among the best in the country, the Vanderbilt offense has been able to stack up in SEC play and string together quality drives. The ‘Dores rank 52nd in the country in points per drive at over two. 

Tennessee’s offense has been well below expectations all season as the team relies on its lead back, Dylan Sampson to shoulder the load. Sampson and Tennessee groudn game averages over five yards per carry, but the Commodores defense is a top 50 rush defense in terms of EPA/Play. 

Vanderbilt has covered in all six games that it has been an underdog of more than 10 points as the market fails to capture this team’s true power rating. While Tennessee has the significant talent edge, I do believe Vandy has the avenues to make the Vols’ sweat for its College Football Playoff berth. 

With fewer possessions and an offense that has been shaky at times this season, only 54th in EPA/Play, I believe that the home underdog can stay close yet again. 

Kansas State vs. Iowa State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Kansas State +3

The Iowa State rush defense continues to be a big issue, outside the top 100 in EPA/Rush and allowing more than five yards per carry. 

The Wildcats looked like its mid-season form with a healthy Avery Johnson rushing for 72 yards against Cincinnati last week, and I believe he can have a ton of success in this one as well to keep this game competitive. 

Kansas State is arguably a top five rushing unit in the nation, averaging nearly six yards per carry and ranking 22nd in EPA/Rush as Johnson has been a dynamic threat next to running back DJ Giddens. 

I’ll take the better team with a plus matchup to keep this one close and potentially spoil ISU’s Big 12 title hopes. 

New Mexico vs. Hawai'i Prediction and Pick

Pick: New Mexico -2

Head coach Bronco Mendenhall’s group is one win away from bowl eligibility, and I believe that the team gets its sixth win on the island against Hawai’i on Saturday night in the final game of the regular season. 

The Rainbow Warriors may be starting freshman Micah Alejado in this one which leaves some question marks about the effectiveness of the team’s offense, but the team is going to be up against it either way against this Lobos offense. 

New Mexico is seventh in yards per play with the nation’s highest yards per carry mark in the country, picking up nearly seven yards per rush. With Devon Dampier engineering a potent offense, and a week to prepare, I fancy the Lobos chances to move the ball against Hawai’i’s middling rush defense. 

The Lobos defense has been a concern all season, but this is a spot I had circled for this week as a first year head coach tries to get his team to a bowl game for the first time since 2015.

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