First to Forde: Best College Football Picks Against the Spread for Week 7

Reed Wallach, Pat Forde | Oct 12, 2024

First to Forde Week 7 / First to Forde Week 7

As a pivotal slate of college football begins, so does our competition to 40 winners against the spread.

After a 5-0 week, Reed Wallach has opened up a four game lead on Pat Forde in our season long competition. With marquee matchups including LSU vs. Ole Miss and Penn State heading out to Los Angeles to play USC, there are plenty of matchups to choose from.

Here's the 10 picks form our two writers with an agreement on one of hte biggest games on the card.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Pat's Picks Against the Spread

Season Wins: 13

Clemson vs. Wake Forest Prediction and Pick

Pick: Clemson -20.5

The Tigers have been rolling up wins and covers ever since that opening loss to Georgia, no reason to stop now against an opponent Clemson has historically dominated. Expect a fifth straight 400-plus yard total offense output from Cade Klubnik & Co.

Cal vs. Pittsburgh Prediction and Pick

Pick: Pitt -3

Cal might be deflated after letting that huge second-half lead evaporate at home against Miami. Now the Golden Bears have to make a long trip to play a hot team. Eli Holstein isn’t quite Cam Ward, but he’s a dangerous dual-threat quarterback who will be able to exploit the Cal defense.

Penn State vs. USC Prediction and Pick

Pick: USC +5.5

The Trojans should be a desperate team, and the long-distance travelers in the Big Ten haven’t fared well. Penn State’s physical defense will get after Miller Moss, but the bet here is that the Nittany Lions’ occasionally plodding offense doesn’t get untracked. Taking USC to win outright.

Florida vs. Tennessee Prediction and Pick

Pick: Florida +15

This is a risk, but the bet here is that the Gators are piecing things together at precisely the time that the helium has started to escape on the Volunteers’ offense. Florida hasn’t lost by more than 14 points to Tennessee since 1992.

Ole Miss vs. LSU Prediction and Pick

Pick: LSU +3.5

The Rebels rarely win in Baton Rouge, and the setup distinctly favors the Tigers.

Ole Miss is playing its second straight road game, while LSU is coming off an open date. Ole Miss makes a lot of hay defensively off of sacking the opposing quarterback, but Garrett Nussmeier is protected by elite pass-blocking tackles and has only been sacked twice all season.

Reed's Picks Against the Spread

Season Wins: 17

Utah vs. Arizona State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Arizona State +5.5

We’ll see if injured Cam Rising goes in this one, and even if he does, I have skepticism his impact justifies the Utes laying more than a field goal on the road against an upstart Arizona State team.

The Sun Devils, though, have proven to have a stout defensive line that can limit the opposing offense. The defensive line has tallied 12 sacks in five games and ranks 23rd in yards per play allowed while shutting off the opposing running game to less than three yards per carry, top 15 in the country. 

We haven’t seen Rising all that much this season, or the season before that, so we still don’t have a true sense of where he is physically and if he can lead a Utah offense on the road to beat a quality foe. The Utes are 100th in EPA/Play, reliant on moving the ball methodically down the field and the offensive line ranks 81st in line yards. 

Arizona State’s offense may have the edge, especially in the Tempe heat, against a road Utah team the team ranks 12th in offensive line yards and 32nd in EPA/Play. With points expected to be a premium, I’ll grab the team with a proven floor on both offense and defense. 

Washington vs. Iowa Prediction and Pick

Pick: Iowa -2.5

This is a tough set up for Washington, who is making a second cross-country flight in three weeks after beating a physical Michigan team at home last week. 

Iowa profiles similar to the Huskies last two opponents, the Wolverines and Rutgers, so while some familiarity will help, the travel won't be with a 9 AM PST body clock start time. 

Further, the special teams gap is quite large in this one with a total in the low 40’s. Washington rates as a bottom 10 special teams group according to SP+ while Iowa is inside the top 30 nationally. 

Iowa has the fewest penalty yards per game this season while Washington is 120th in the same category. 

All things point towards an Iowa win at home. 

UTSA vs. Rice Prediction and Pick

Pick: Rice +5.5

Gross one, but I can’t justify the Roadrunners laying this amount of points on the road against Rice. 

Both teams are set to fall way short of expectations after UTSA entered 2024 with a win total of 8.5 an Rice with 6.5, but why are the Roadrunners getting the benefit of the doubt? 

The Owls will be the home team with a massive edge on the ground, top 10 in yards per carry, against a UTSA team that is outside the top 120 in EPA/Play. 

Rice will slow this game down and keep a lid on the Roadrunners defense en route to a cover.

Ole Miss vs. LSU Prediction and Pick

Pick: LSU +3.5

This is a brutal set up for Ole Miss, who are playing its seventh straight game on the road against LSU at one of the toughest venues in the country. 

While Ole Miss has been the more complete team thus far, the LSU defense still has faults under new defensive coordinator Blake Baker, the team will be well rested and as healthy as its been all season against the Rebels, who have a building list of injuries. 

After playing the likes of Kentucky and South Carolina, two defenses that are inside the top 25 nationally in EPA/Play, the Ole Miss offense is starting to run on fumes. 

With several offensive linemen banged up, in addition to star wide receiver Tre Harris, edge rusher Princely Umanmielen and running back Henry Parrish, the Rebels are limping into this one. 

Further, while the Tigers have been struggling on defense, LSU has a stout pass rush, top 15 in the country, per Pro Football Focus. Can the team force enough negative plays to get enough stops? 

On the other side of the ball, Ole Miss has benefitted from an easy crop of opposing offenses. The LSU group will have a full week to prepare for an elite Rebels pass rush, but one that hasn’t been tested in the passing game. The Rebels haven’t faced an offense inside the top half of the country in EPA/Pass this season. 

This is a perfect set up for LSU to cover as three point home underdogs, and potentially win outright. 

Minnesota vs. UCLA Prediction and Pick

Pick: UCLA +5.5

With a total of 40.5, I can’t trust Minnesota to go out and dispose of UCLA on the road like this point spread indicates. 

While there is a ton of interest in the Golden Gophers after a thrilling upset win against USC, I’m not rushing to back the team heading out west to face UCLA that has held up nicely against far superior competition, covering in three straight games as a considerable underdog. 

Quarterback Ethan Garbers is practicing ahead of this week and Minnesota’ shaky rush defense (68th in EPA/Rush) makes me confident the Bruins can play keep away and cover the bloated point spread. 

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