First to Forde: Best College Football Picks Against the Spread for Week 6

Reed Wallach, Pat Forde | Oct 2, 2024

First to Forde /

As teams on the field jockey for College Football Playoff positioning, our two pickers are also neck-and-neck in a race to 40 wins against the spread.

Pat Forde and Reed Wallach make five picks a week against the spread in a race to 40 winners, and with the competition on the field picking up, the margin is as narrow as it was since Week 1 to see who will get to the finish line first.

With a handful of marquee conference games this weekend, who will our two pickers side with? Get the 10 picks below!

Reed's Picks Against the Spread

Reed's Wins: 12

Syracuse vs. UNLV Prediction and Pick

Pick: Syracuse +6.5

This is a massive overreaction to the UNLV win against Fresno State last week, which was indeed impressive, but this is a big upgrade after the team closed inside of a field goal against the Bulldogs. 

Syracuse has been a high octane offense that is 29th in EPA/Pass and averaging more than three points per game. This will be the first offense that the Rebels new look defense has faced that is inside the top 50 in EPA/Pass. 

The Rebels, meanwhile, may have gone to a better passer in Williams, but there is now film for Syracuse to scout on after not having much on him. Further, the expectation is that UNLV will beat this team by margin, which I push back against with the likes of Trebor Pena and Oronde Gadsen putting pressure on the secondary. 

Syracuse’s defense may leave some to be desired, but the team has done a great job of shutting down big plays to date thus far, right around the national average in terms of EPA/Play and are the far more talented team. 

I’ll happily fade the Rebels off a massive win as I make this game inside of a field goal.

Indiana vs. Northwestern Prediction and Pick

Pick: Indiana -13.5

Indiana has been a terror for the opposition this season, 5-0 straight up and 4-1 against the number. 

I like the Hoosiers to keep it rolling on the road against Northwestern, a team that has score more than two touchdowns in one of three games against FBS competition. 

Indiana has proven it can run it up on a Big Ten foes already this season, scoring 40 or more against both UCLA on the road and Maryland at home last week, and has the ability to win in multiple ways, ranking top 15 in both rushing and passing success rate. 

Northwestern will do its best to limit explosive plays from IU, but the Hoosiers ability to put the Wildcats into third and long will be paramount as the visitors  will feast on prime field position en route to a cover. 

Northwestern is 71st in early down EPA/Play while Indiana’s defense checks in 16th in that same metric.  

Auburn vs. Georgia Prediction and Pick

Pick: Auburn +24.5

Auburn has been on the wrong end of three losses of this season that the team could’ve won each of. The team has had a post game win expectancy of 19.3%, 93.3% and 75.3% in its three losses. 

Of course, heading to Georgia to face the Bulldogs off a loss is never appetizing to bet against, but Kirby Smart’s teams haven’t been so great in this situation. 

Georgia is 8-15 against the spread since 2017 (Smart’s second season) when laying three touchdowns or more.

Auburn is better than its record states, top 10 in yards per play this season. If the unit can avoid some back-breaking turnovers, this game will be competitive for much of the 60 minutes

Iowa vs. Ohio State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Ohio State -19.5

I struggle to see Iowa moving the ball effectively to create scoring chances against Ohio State on the road. 

The Hawkeyes have an elite ground game this season, but are a one-dimensional outfit. The team isn’t going to be able to get to third and manageable against a Buckeyes defense that is second in early down EPA/Play this season. 

The Hawkeyes will be forced to throw, which will likely fail to lead to results with the team 98th in EPA/Pass and 127th in explosive pass rate. 

Iowa’s defense is among the best in the country, but the Buckeyes are in a different class and should be able to create explosives and pounce on strong field position against the Hawkeyes to win a low scoring game by margin. 

The Buckeyes may look to get out of this game quickly with an eye to the big game against Oregon next week, but the team is simply too explosive to keep out of the end zone and push this game out of reach. 

Kansas vs. Arizona State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Arizona State -3

I’m going to grab the better team who has a rest advantage off a BYE to hand Kansas yet another loss. 

The Jayhawks are feeling the effects of losing offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnecki, as the team has slumped to 1-4 on the season now. Meanwhile, Arizona State is much improved in the second season under head coach Kenny Dillingham, deploying its lead running back Cam Skattebo (86 carries for 433 yards and five touchdowns in four games) and transfer quarterback Sam Leavitt. 

The Jayhawks defense has been average, but quarterback Jalon Daniels has regressed a ton as the team is 74th in EPA/Pass. Arizona State ranks top 10 in EPA/Play and has shut down the opposing running game to force obvious passing situations, where Daniels will be baited into mistakes. 

The Sun Devils should take care of business at home. 

Pat Forde Picks Against the Spread

Pat's Wins: 11

Penn State vs. UCLA Prediction and Pick

Pick: Penn State -28

This is a 9 a.m. body-clock kickoff for the Bruins, and it’s their second long-distance trip in three weeks after playing at LSU Sept. 21. The Nittany Lions are only allowing 11.5 points per game and UCLA is only scoring 14.8, so Penn State won’t have to score much more than 28 to cover this number. 

Tulane vs. UAB Prediction and Pick

Pick: Tulane -14.5

The Blazers are quite bad. They’re winless against FBS competition, including a 26-point loss to Louisiana-Monroe, of all teams. The Green Wave, meanwhile, hit its stride last week in blowing out South Florida. Darian Mensah is an intriguing young talent at quarterback for Tulane, and first-year coach Jon Sumrall showed a tendency for his teams to get stronger as the season goes along while at Troy.

Clemson vs. Florida State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Clemson -14.5

One team is red hot, the other is a complete wreck. I wouldn’t expect the homefield advantage to mean much here for the Seminoles – plenty of Clemson fans will be there, and if this starts badly for the ‘Noles it could get toxic quickly. As shaky as D.J. Uiagalelei has been for FSU, his finger injury is still bad news. Backup Brock Glenn is a career 35 percent passer with zero touchdowns and two interceptions.

Michigan vs. Washington Prediction and Pick

Pick: Michigan +2.5

I’m surprised the Wolverines are getting points here. They’re not great by any means, and they certainly cannot throw the ball, but their defense is still elite – especially against the run, which is an area where the Huskies have had some success this year. In what looks like a low-scoring trench battle, go with the team that’s been built to win those kinds of games.

Duke vs. Georgia Tech Prediction and Pick

Pick: Duke +9

Yes, I’ll take an undefeated team getting more than a touchdown. The Blue Devils have squeaked by in three of their five wins – but they’re finding ways to win. The Yellow Jackets still seem to be a bit inflated in Vegas by beating Florida State in the opener – and it’s turned out that beating the Seminoles isn’t much of an accomplishment. Duke has the defense to keep it in just about every game, including this one.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

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