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First to Forde: Best Picks Against the Spread for College Football Week 4
College football season is heating up and so is the race to 40 winners between two Sports Illustrated writers!
With conference play continuing to ramp up, our attention is focused across the power conferences, including a Friday night matchup between Illinois and Nebraska as well as Arizona State traveling to Lubbock, Texas to look to keep its unbeaten start alive against Texas Tech.
Further, we dissect headline matchups on Saturday's card with Clemson hosting North Carolina State and Michigan looking to get on track in Big Ten play against new member USC.
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook as of Wednesday at 10 AM EST.
Pat’s Picks Against the Spread
Pat’s Wins: 5
Illinois vs. Nebraska Prediction and Pick
Pick: Illinois +8.5
The bet here is that the Illini defense keeps this within a touchdown. Dylan Raiola is a talented quarterback but a young one, and the Illini already have six interceptions on the season. They rank third in the Big Ten in pass efficiency defense and could goad Raiola into a mistake or two. Luke Altmyer has been dependable at QB meanwhile for Illinois, and Bret Bielema has a way of shrinking games with ball-control offense.
Indiana vs. Charlotte Prediction and Pick
Pick: Indiana -2.5
The Hoosiers are a hot team playing with a lot of confidence for a new coach who is eager to make a splash. I don’t see Curt Cignetti calling off the dogs if Indiana gets up big. The 49ers’ only win so far is by one point against an FCS opponent, so I don’t expect much from the visitors. Indiana has 12 sacks through three games and Charlotte has allowed 11, which means the Hoosiers could live in the 49ers’ backfield all game.
USC vs. Michigan Prediction and Pick
Pick: USC -5.5
The Wolverines have quarterback issues, flipping the starting job this week to Alex Orji, who has thrown seven career passes in two-plus seasons. The Trojans have an improved defense, allowing just 20 points in two games. I expect USC defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn to load up to stop the run and make Orji prove he can make plays in the passing game. I also expect USC QB Miller Moss to continue to play well.
Arizona State vs. Texas Tech Prediction and Pick
Pick: Arizona State +3.5
I’m rolling with the Sun Devils until proven wrong. They’re a surprise 3-0 on the season and 3-0 against the spread, and they go to Lubbock off an extra two days’ rest and prep after playing Thursday night last week. The Red Raiders’ run defense hasn’t been great so far, so I can foresee ASU running back Cam Skattebo having a big day.
Wyoming vs. North Texas Prediction and Pick
Pick: North Texas -9
The Cowboys (0-3) are a bad team. Don’t overthink it; bet against bad teams on the road.
Reed’s Picks Against the Spread
Reed’s Wins: 7
North Carolina State vs. Clemson Prediction and Pick
Pick: NC State +20.5
This market shifted dramatically on the news that the Wolfpack will start freshman CJ Bailey on Saturday in Death Valley, but I believe its moved a bit too much.
The Wolfpack are a year removed from shutting down this Clemson offense and winning outright in Raleigh, 24-17, despite gaining 202 total yards.
This is a bet on Tony Gibson’s 3-3-5 defense showing up and keeping a lid on this Tigers offense that I still can’t get a true gauge of. Is the offense closer to the one that scored three points against Georgia or 66 against Appalachian State?
We’ll see, but I believe that the Wolfpack can keep this game respectable.
Rutgers vs. Virginia Tech Prediction and Pick
Pick: Rutgers +3.5
Last season, Virginia Tech couldn’t stop Rutgers’ rush attack en route to a 35-16 loss in New Jersey.
This season, the location changes, but I expect a similar result as the Scarlet Knights have one of the most dangerous rushers in the country in Kyle Monangi.
While it was easy competition, Monangi has rushed for eight yards per carry this season, a year removed from a 1,200 yard campaign for the tailback. The Hokies defense has struggled this season, bottom half of the country in EPA/Rush this season, and have injuries on offense that may offset its explosiveness.
The Hokies have been underwhelming to start this season, losing outright as double digit favorites to Vanderbilt and allowing both Marshall and Old Dominion to post above average EPA/Rush marks.
Take the running dog on Saturday.
Arizona State vs. Texas Tech Prediction and Pick
Pick: Arizona State +3.5
I’m going to trust Arizona State to keep this competitive on Saturday with extra rest ahead of a matchup against the Red Raiders in Lubbock.
Texas Tech was able to blowout North Texas to the tune of 66-21 last week, but this is still a roster that couldn’t contain the run game of Washington State or Abilene Christian to start the season.
The team is outside the top 100 in explosive run and pass rate this season and are 117th in yards per play allowed, which is going to be a problem against an Arizona State team that has an elite run game with Cam Skattebo and an emerging dual-threat quarterback in Sam Leavitt.
Arizona State has an elite rush defense, top 10 in yards per carry allowed, which can put the onus on Behren Morton to pass more, which has been suspect over the better part of three seasons, making 17 big time throws to 26 turnover worthy plays, per Pro Football Focus.
Vanderbilt vs. Missouri Prediction and Pick
Pick: Vanderbilt +21.5
Vanderbilt lost outright against Georgia State, but this is a far more advantageous spot for the team, as a massive underdog where the team can burn the clock and keep this game close.
Missouri has been lightly tested to date, beating Boston College in Week 3 as massive favorites, but the team continues to not create explosive plays at a high clip.
The team is 94th in explosive rush and 127th in explosive pass rate. While the team has big play threats like Luther Burden, it hasn’t shown up just yet.
Vandy can hang around the number at over three TD’s.
New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston Prediction and Pick
Pick: Sam Houston -16.5
New Mexico State nearly knocked off Liberty in Week 2, but that was a red herring to one of the worst teams in the country, blasted by Fresno State 49-0 in Week 3.
Sam Houston State has been able to find chunk plays through the air with JUCO transfer Hunter Watson taking over under center, ranking top 10 in explosive pass rate so far this season.
New Mexico State is bottom 20 in plenty of metrics and simply don’t have the firepower to hang with Sam Houston, who has won both of its games against more talented foes by 20-plus.
The Bearkats can win by margin on Saturday night.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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REED WALLACH
Reed is a Senior Editor at SI Betting. He grew up in New Jersey and graduated from the University of Wisconsin. His passion lies with the Brooklyn Nets, but is always hunting for an edge.
PAT FORDE
Pat Forde is a senior writer for Sports Illustrated who covers college football and college basketball as well as the Olympics and horse racing. He cohosts the College Football Enquirer podcast and is a football analyst on the Big Ten Network. He previously worked for Yahoo Sports, ESPN and The (Louisville) Courier-Journal. Forde has won 28 Associated Press Sports Editors writing contest awards, has been published three times in the Best American Sports Writing book series, and was nominated for the 1990 Pulitzer Prize. A past president of the U.S. Basketball Writers Association and member of the Football Writers Association of America, he lives in Louisville with his wife. They have three children, all of whom were collegiate swimmers.