First to Forde: Best Picks Against the Spread for College Football Week 10

Reed Wallach, Pat Forde, Pat Forde | Oct 30, 2024

First to Forde / First to Forde

We have hit the stretch run of the college football season, and the same can be said for our race to 40 wins against the spread!

Both our pickers are over 50% against the spread this season with five picks per week with Reed Wallach holding a slight lead over Pat Forde. With some marquee conference matchups across the country, where do our pickers go?

Get the bets below!

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Pat Forde's Picks Against the Spread

Season Wins: 23

Air Force vs. Army Prediction and Pick

Pick: Air Force +23.5

Too big a number in an underrated rivalry game. Air Force is bad and Army is good, but there might not be enough possessions to turn this game into a runaway.

Duke vs. Miami (Florida) Prediction and Pick

Pick: Duke +20

The Blue Devils have lost twice this season by a combined 11 points and tend to play every game close – win or lose. Miami’s average ACC margin of victory is 8.5 points. The math says the spread is too large.

Minnesota vs. Illinois Prediction and Pick

Pick: Illinois +3

Yeah, the Gophers have played much better of late, winning three in a row. But Illinois as a home underdog in this situation is a gift. Max Brosmer has been a hot QB the last couple of weeks for Minnesota but he will see a better defense Saturday than anything he’s faced in a while.

Florida vs. Georgia Prediction and Pick

Pick: Florida +16

The Gators have gotten themselves together and had an open date to get freshman quarterback D.J. Lagway more comfortable with the offense. The Bulldogs should still win – and perhaps easily, if they can replicate the fire they played with at Texas – but this is a rivalry game that I expect to be competitive for the full 60 minutes.

Colorado State vs. Nevada Prediction and Pick

Pick: Colorado State -1

The Rams are on a roll, winning in three in a row and inserting themselves in the Mountain West race. Nevada hasn’t yet recovered an opponent’s fumble this season.

Reed's Picks Against the Spread

Season Wins: 27

Ole Miss vs. Arkansas Prediction and Pick

Pick: Arkansas +7

This Ole Miss team continues to trend in the wrong direction. The injuries are mounting on the offensive side of the ball and the group has failed to score more than 27 in SEC play.

Now, the team travels to face Arkansas, who has been a thorn in the side of the SEC elite all season, playing closer than the scoreboard indicated against LSU and stunning Tennessee at home.

With an eye on Georgia next week, can Ole Miss be looking ahead? The Razorbacks defensive line has been sturdy this season, and the Rebels offensive line is now outside the top half of the country in pass blocking and run blocking grade, per Pro Football Focus.

Can Bobby Petrino scheme up a sound offensive game plan that keeps this game tight? I think so.

Minnesota vs. Illinois Prediction and Pick

Pick: Illinois +3

After getting smoked by Oregon on the road, Illinois is no longer the upstart Big Ten team that pundits are fawning over, and instead its Minnesota!

The Golden Gophers are winners of three straight, a wind-impacted game against USC, a close call at UCLA and a blowout win against Maryland. Call me skeptical that this Minnesota team is a wagon that can go on the road and win with margin against an Illinois offense that is top third of the country in EPA/Play against a more difficult schedule.

Arizona State vs. Oklahoma State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Arizona State -2.5

Arizona State is likely getting Sam Leavitt back from injury, which will open up the passing game for the Sun Devils and should have little issue moving the ball on the lowly Pokes.

Oklahoma State is allowing nearly seven yards per play and the most yards per carry, which is a big issue with Cam Skattebo lining up in the Arizona State backfield off a BYE.

This season has gotten away from Oklahoma State, and ASU should take care of business on the road.

Oregon vs. Michigan Prediction and Pick

Pick: Oregon -14.5

I'm not buying Michigan after its win against Michigan State.

The Wolverines don't have a viable passing game with anyone under center, rotating back to Week 1 starter Davis Warren, and I don't envision the team can keep the Oregon offense down long enough for the Ducks to open up a three score lead.

While Michigan has an elite defensive line, the Oregon short passing game is among the best in the country. Heisman Trophy contender Dillon Gabriel is completing more than 84% of his passes that are less than 10 yards down the field, per Pro Football Focus. 

Lay it with the Ducks.

Old Dominion vs. Appalachian State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Old Dominion -2.5

In one of the mismatches of the season, Old Dominion's budding ground game with freshman Colton Joseph will face the worst rush defense in the country in Appalachian State in terms of EPA/Rush.

ODU has been on an upward trajectory over the last month, upsetting Bowling Green on the road, nearly beating Coastal Carolina in Conway the following week, and then shutting down the likes of Georgia State, Texas State, and Georgia Southern to less than 20 points each.

Lay it with the road favorite, who has far too many edges against a struggling App. State defense.

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