First to Forde: Best Picks Against the Spread for College Football Week 11

Reed Wallach | Nov 6, 2024

First to Forde / First to Forde

We draw closer to the end of the regular season, and our race to 40 wins against the spread!

SI writers Pat Forde and Reed Wallach continue the race to 40 with five picks each in Week 11 with Wallach ahead by three as we head into the home stretch of the season.

A busy week of college football continues through the weekend with a handful of Friday night games and marquee matchups on Saturday that headline the Week 11 card. With the College Football Playoff fast approaching, each team is looking to put on its best performances and our pair of pickers have found five picks for the slate.

Both Pat and Reed have a pick for Friday as well as picking some of the most consequential games on the Saturday slate. Get them all below!

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Pat Forde's Picks Against the Spread

Season Wins: 26

Iowa vs. UCLA Prediction and Pick

Pick: UCLA +5.5

I don’t have a strong conviction here, given the Hawkeyes’ recent success with quarterback Brendan Sullivan. But Iowa has become almost exclusively a ground-and-pound team (54 runs, 10 passes last week), and the Bruins are a good defense against the run. Besides, UCLA has turned a corner in the last couple of weeks with road wins – can they give the home fans at least one win in the Rose Bowl? Or at least cover?

Florida vs. Texas Prediction and Pick

Pick: Texas -21.5

This sets up very poorly for the Gators, who are coming off a draining rivalry loss to Georgia and likely will start Aidan Warner, a third-string QB and walk-on from Yale. Pressed into service against the Bulldogs, he was 7 of 22 for 66 yards with an interception – a full game like that would not go well. Texas, meanwhile, is coming off an open date and should have every conceivable advantage – talent, rest, prep time, home field.

Iowa State vs. Kansas Prediction and Pick

Pick: Iowa State -3

The small spread is surprising, but perhaps owes to the Jayhawks playing so many close games. Problem for them is, they lose them all – Kansas is 0-5 in one-score games. Kansas has an open-date advantage here but not much of a home-field edge playing in Kansas City – expect plenty of Cyclone fans in Arrowhead Stadium. Iowa State should bounce back strong from its first loss of the season.

South Carolina vs. Vanderbilt Prediction and Pick

Pick: Vanderbilt +3.5

Vandy has covered in every SEC game this season and has been especially tough at home. South Carolina might be the better team, but I’ll roll with Diego Pavia and the Commodores as home ‘dogs.

Florida State vs. Notre Dame Prediction and Pick

Pick: Notre Dame -26

One team has everything to play for, the other team has quit. One team has a national top-ten defense, the other has the worst power-conference offense in the country. One team is at home and coming off an open date, the other has less rest and has to go on the road. And if the weather turns up dodgy in South Bend, that’s all the more reason for the Seminoles to mail it in. This should be a beatdown.

Reed's Picks Against the Spread

Season Wins: 29

Rice vs. Memphis Prediction and Pick

Pick: Rice +9

Rice continues to round into form down the stretch of the season, fresh off an upset over Navy as a double-digit home underdog.

The Owls have covered four straight (depending on the number you bet them against UConn), while Memphis hasn’t covered in three straight.

Rice’s offense continues to come on strong, especially in the run game where the team is top 30 in the country in explosive rush rate. With a prodding tempo that is outside the top 100 in seconds per play, and against a Memphis defense that is outside the top 120 in explosive rush defense, the Owls can stay within striking distance.

Meanwhile, it’s fair to question the state of the Tigers, who entered the season as the AAC favorite, but are now on the outside looking in after losing as a touchdown favorite at UTSA. The defense has allowed 44, 28, and 44 points in the last three games as well, which makes the home favorite an untrustworthy one.

Duke vs. North Carolina State Prediction and Pick

Pick: North Carolina State -3

These are two teams trending in opposite directions.

NC State seems to finally have figured out its offense, moving forward with freshman CJ Bailey, who has engineered two straight wins against Cal and Stanford. The offense also had some poor variance in the red zone in a home loss to Syracuse before that, so this has been a team that has been sitting on a heater for quite some time.

Meanwhile, Duke continues to be far worse than its record states. The Blue Devils are 6-2, but are yet to beat a bowl-eligible team.

The Blue Devils run an air-raid scheme with Maalik Murphy, but the offense has continued to be hit-or-miss with the Texas transfer under center, ranking only 74th in EPA/Pass this season. Further, the run game is non-existent, outside the top 120 in yards per carry and EPA/Rush.

That’s a big issue against NC State, who has an elite secondary that ranks 48th in EPA/Pass and top 20 in explosive pass defense. I like this matchup for the Wolfpack to continue its upward trajectory at home.

Army vs. North Texas Prediction and Pick

Pick: North Texas +5.5

For starters, it’s up in the air if Army’s star quarterback Bryson Daily will go in this one, adding a ton of uncertainty to the side of the road favorite.

With Daily a surprise scratch last week, Army struggled to find much traction on offense with backup Dewayne Coleman under center.

Army hasn’t faced an offense inside the top 80 in EPA/Play this season, which means the team is in for a rude awakening against North Texas on Saturday, which is 17th in that metric.

North Texas’ defense is a far cry from even average, 114th in EPA/Play, but the offense is elite and this will be unfamiliar territory for Army with possibly its backup under center.

I’ll take the Mean Green to keep this one close at home.

Washington vs. Penn State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Penn State -13.5

Sure, many watched the Nittany Lions come up short last week in a marquee matchup against Ohio State, but this is a great matchup for the home favorite to dispose of an out-matched Washington team.

The Huskies' defense is incredibly vulnerable against the run, which is Penn State’s preferred method of attack on offense. The Nittany Lions rank 10th in yards per play with its two-headed rushing attack of Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton opening up a passing game that is top 10 in the country in EPA/Pass.

Washington’s defensive line has been a weak point all season, 92nd in line yards and 93rd in EPA/Rush.

Factor in the cross-country travel and hostile environment, I like Penn State to get right with a blowout victory.

BYU vs. Utah Prediction and Pick

Pick: Utah +4

I’m siding with the home underdog Utes to keep this one within a field goal and be live for the upset win.

As has become custom in the Big 12 this season, the difference between the top and bottom of the league is marginal, and we have another opportunity to bet on that idea on Saturday night.

While the Utah offense has fallen off a cliff without Cam Rising on the field, the team still has a more than capable running back in Micah Bernard and an elite defense.

The BYU defense remains vulnerable against the run, 96th in EPA/Rush and 103rd in explosive rush defense while ranking outside the top 100 in tackles for loss. If Utah is able to lean on a well-rested Bernard and put the likes of Rose (or Wilson) in favorable down and distances, the Utah offense may be set up for success.

In a matchup with a low total, look for Utah’s defense to set the tone against BYU.

The unit is 10th in EPA/Play and No. 1 in the nation in success rate.

It’s worth noting that BYU has played two defenses inside the top 70 in EPA/Play this season, at home against Kansas State and at SMU. While the Cougars won both of those games, the offense averaged 5.15 yards per play across the two, which would be outside the top 100 nationally.

In a low scoring game, I’ll grab the points.