First to Forde: College Football Best Bets Against the Spread for Week 1

Pat Forde and Reed Wallach make their ATS picks.

If you are looking for college football picks, you have certainly come to the right place. 

Everybody wants in on the action this season, and we want in too. So, we’ve set up a little friendly competition between Sports Illustrated Senior Writer Pat Forde and College Football Betting Insider Reed Wallach this season to see who can shine in the betting market to not just beat the books, but beat each other. 

There will be five picks against the spread each week for each contestant and the first to 40 – in honor of our own Forde – wins!

Picks from any game go in this format, but in this week's slate, we have some early head-to-head action on a marquee matchup between Penn State and West Virginia while also hitting on a handful of games starting on Thursday. 

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Pat Forde’s Picks Against the Spread

North Carolina vs. Minnesota Prediction and Pick 

Pick: Minnesota +1.5

Underdogs ruled Week Zero, and I’m expecting that trend to roll over to Week 1 as Vegas tries to get a handle on teams early in the season. I’ll take a home ‘dog against an opponent trying to replace a top-five NFL draft pick at quarterback.

Clemson vs. Georgia Prediction and Pick 

Pick: Clemson +13.5

I’d prefer a 14-point cushion to 13.5, but that’s still a fat spread. Clemson hasn’t been this big of an underdog in many years, perhaps since early in the Deshaun Watson Era. Georgia is the better team and should win, but I’m expecting it to be a competitive game.

Penn State vs. West Virginia Prediction and Pick 

Pick: West Virginia +8.5 

The line has trended toward the Mountaineers after opening at 10.5, and I think that’s with good reason. WVU finished last season with a lot of positive momentum and will have a rabid home crowd. Drew Allar still has to convince me he’s a big-time QB for Penn State.

Illinois State vs. Iowa Prediction and Pick

Pick: Illinois state +22.5

Brian Ferentz is gone, but is the Hawkeyes offense magically cured? Preseason reports indicate no. Iowa still has plenty of defense to win this game, but perhaps not in a landslide. Once again, go with the underdog to cover.

New Mexico vs. Arizona Prediction and Pick 

Pick: Arizona -31.5 

The Lobos blew a 17-point lead in the fourth quarter last week against FCS Montana State, and that was after getting two defensive scores. I don’t see that team faring well against the pass-and-catch duo of Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan, and I suspect Brent Brennan will keep his foot on the gas in his first game as coach at Arizona.

Reed’s Picks Against the Spread 

UConn vs. Maryland Prediction and Pick 

Pick: UConn +20.5

This is a lofty point spread for Maryland to be laying in its opener as it transitions its quarterback room from Taulia Tagovailoa to the likes of either Billy Edwards or MJ Morris. 

UConn’s starting quarterback Nick Evers is a former Oklahoma commit and a Wisconsin transfer, so we’ll see if he can play to his upside against a Maryland team that lacks an identity. Further, this is a fairly stout defense that ranks Top 50 in the country in terms of returning production and bolsters a sturdy defensive line. 

I think it can be a clunky start for Maryland and the Huskies hang within the number. 

Penn State vs. West Virginia Prediction and Pick 

Pick: Penn State -8.5

Pat’s points are well taken, but when I go back and look at Week 1 last season, the Nittany Lions were in cruise control for much of that game. Now needing to win by two scores instead of three, they should be able to handle the Mountaineers on the road. 

In the meeting last season, Penn State outgained West Virginia by 170 yards and racked up six tackles for loss. The Nittany Lions will be transitioning to two new coordinators on each side of the ball, but the pieces are still in place to shut down the WVU offense. 

While West Virginia had a strong season, the defense was outside the top 80 in defensive EPA/Play. I believe this can be a coming-out party for Kotelnecki’s revamped offense with Penn State. Just two years ago, Kotelnecki’s offense at Kansas was part of a 55–point effort in an overtime win at West Virginia. 

Further, West Virginia only beat two teams that made a bowl game last season. I like Penn State to hit the ground running in 2024. 

Eastern Michigan vs. Massachusetts Prediction and Pick

Pick: UMass -2.5

Last season, UMass lost a heartbreaker in Ypsilanti as the Eagles hit a 50-yard touchdown in the final 80 seconds to pull ahead and win. 

However, the Minutemen were clearly the better side in that one, outgaining the Eagles 464-371 with its backup quarterback but were plagued by four turnovers. 

UMass won at New Mexico State by double digits last season. I like Taisun Phomanchanh and the Minutemen to keep it rolling at home and beat a less talented team. 

Colorado State vs. Texas Prediction and Pick 

Pick: Colorado State +31.5

I’m not sure Texas is all that incentivized to run it up on the Rams in this one. 

Looking at last year, the Longhorns were a big favorite against Rice in Week 1 ahead of a road game at Alabama, keeping it pretty conservative and taking home a fairly comfortable 37-17 win. 

Against a Colorado State team that has an above-average Group of Five offense, headlined by returning quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolisi and wide receiver Tory Horton, the Rams can keep this respectable and within four touchdowns and change. 

Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M Prediction and Pick 

Pick: Texas A&M -2.5

This is a tough ask for the Fighting Irish as they have to replace three offensive linemen and now a fourth as starter Charles Jagusah is set to miss the game with a preseason injury.

The Aggies' defensive line is among the best in the nation and should keep a lid on the Notre Dame offense, led by Duke transfer Riley Leonard, who is facing his former coach in first-year head coach of Texas A&M Mike Elko. 

This game should be low-scoring, but I favor the home team with an edge in the trenches and a fully healthy Conner Weigman to thrive in new OC Collin Klein’s run-first set to open up the field for the passing game.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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