First to Forde: College Football Best Bets Against the Spread for Week 2

Reed Wallach | Sep 4, 2024

The college football season is officially underway!

After a thrilling Week 1, the competition for against the spread supremacy between SI Senior Writer and Pat Forde and SI Betting Senior Editor Reed Wallach is tight. While both pickers got off to shaky starts that resemble the likes of Florida State and Texas A&M, the race to 40 winners continues.

This week, the two cast a wider net, dipping into the Group of Five ranks a bit more to find winners with a majority of FBS teams taking on more similar opponents in FBS caliber after a tune-up game in Week 1.

Keep reading to find where the two are going this week!

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook as of Wednesday morning

Pat Forde's Picks Against the Spread

Wins: 0

Iowa State vs. Iowa Prediction and Pick

Pick: Iowa (-2.5)

The under is always a tantalizing play when the Hawkeyes are involved, and this is traditionally a low-scoring game. But I’m sticking with spreads for now, and I like Iowa at home against a Cyclones team that was outgained by North Dakota in their opener.

Iowa State couldn’t run against an FCS opponent, and getting one-dimensional against a Phil Parker defense is not a good way to spend an afternoon.

Houston vs. Oklahoma Prediction and Pick

Pick: Oklahoma (-29)

At the risk of repeating my New Mexico error from last week, the Cougars were a train wreck in their opener against a weaker opponent than they’ll face in their second game.

Houston will have to improve significantly and the Sooners seemingly would have to make more mistakes than they did in beating Temple 51-3. One area for Oklahoma to clean up: a 1-for-12 conversion rate on third down – but it was 3-for-3 on fourth down. The Sooner Schooner should get a workout celebrating touchdowns.

Boise State vs. Oregon Prediction and Pick

Pick: Boise State (+18.5)

This is too big a number to give the Broncos.

The Ducks will likely play much better than their misfiring opening slog past Idaho, but Boise State is a legitimate opponent with a Heisman Trophy candidate in running back Ashton Jeanty (267 rushing yards and six touchdowns on just 20 carries in the opener). Boise has to tighten up defensively after getting into a shootout with Georgia Southern.

Tulsa vs. Arkansas State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Tulsa (+7)

I keep looking at this line and waiting for it to make sense. No, the Golden Hurricanes are not world beaters.

Yes, they’re playing on the road. Yes, they lost a key wide receiver to a season-ending injury in the opener. But being a touchdown underdog to a team that needed an incorrect replay review to escape Central Arkansas in the closing seconds seems like an opportunity to beat Vegas.

Kevin Wilson is a good offensive coach; Tulsa will put up points again this week after scoring 62 last week.

Marshall vs. Virginia Tech Prediction and Pick

Pick: Marshall (+20.5)

Thundering Herd coach Charles Huff is a big-game hunter – in the past two seasons he’s beaten Notre Dame and these very Hokies, and narrowly lost to North Carolina State. Marshall coaches got a chance to play just about everyone on the depth chart in an opening rout of Stony Brook and should have a good handle on who they can trust going into Blacksburg.

Tech likely will rebound from an opening upset loss to Vanderbilt, but not to the point of winning by three touchdowns.

Reed Wallach's Picks Against the Spread

Reed Wins: 1

Arkansas vs. Oklahoma State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Arkansas (+7.5)

Oklahoma State looked strong in a 24-point demolition of FCS powerhouse South Dakota State, but the team was a bit fortuitous to win by that margin, only out-gaining the Jackrabbits by six yards.

In comes Arkansas, who is trying to revive its offense under famed coordinator Bobby Petrino and transfer quarterback Taylen Green. While the Hogs are projected to be a bottom-of-the-barrel SEC team, I believe the team is being overlooked a bit by this spread.

South Dakota State went a combined three for 17 on third and fourth down in the loss last week. If Arkansas is able to keep the chains moving, this game should be close throughout and finish within a one score spread.

Northern Illinois vs. Notre Dame Prediction and Pick

Pick: Northern Illinois (+28.5)

Notre Dame scored a massive upset win on the road against Texas A&M last week, so is there much incentive for the team to squash Northern Illinois at home with another Power Four opponent in Purdue on deck? 

The Huskies have 16 returning starters from a group that lost by double digits once last season and beat a Power Four team in Boston College outright. 

I’ll fade Notre Dame at over four touchdowns as the team likely keeps a vanilla game script. 

Middle Tennessee vs. Ole Miss Prediction and Pick

Pick: Ole Miss (-41.5)

Middle Tennessee is ushering in a new coaching staff, and the team was lucky to get past FCS opponent Tennessee Tech in its opener. 

Now, the team heads to Oxford to take on Ole Miss, who put its foot on the pedal to route Furman to the tune of 76-0. 

Quickly, Jaxson Dart has gone to the top of the odds board for the Heisman Trophy, tied with Dillon Gabriel and Cam Ward. I expect Lane Kiffin to continue to pad his quarterback’s resume with a gaudy stat line yet again after he completed 22-of-27 passes for 418 yards and five touchdowns. 

Ole Miss can name its number, and the margin will be more than 41 points.

East Carolina vs. Old Dominion Prediction and Pick

Pick: East Carolina (-2.5)

The revamped ECU offense heads to Old Dominion for its first FBS test.

After a dismal offensive season, the Pirates brought in former Ole Miss co-OC John David Baker and former Miami and Missouri quarterback Jake Garcia to get back on track.

The proof of concept was there in the team's 42-3 win against Norfolk State. While the team had six turnovers, I'm going to give Garcia a mulligan after making his first start for the first time in three seasons, and bank on some improvement with more reps.

The team maintains a sturdy defense that ranked top 50 in success rate last season, and the offensive scheme can out-pace Old Dominion, who was outside the top 100 in EPA/Play on offense.

This is a coming out party for one of the fast risers in the Group of Five.

Kansas vs. Illinois Prediction and Pick

Pick: Illinois (+5.5)

The Jayhawks won 34-23 while racking up 539 yards to the Fighting Illini’s 341 yards, but I’m going to back the resurgent home underdog in this one. 

Illinois’ offense should be far improved this season with another year of Luke Altmyer under center and the emergence of Feagin as the lead running back. Feagin is a gigantic running back who can overwhelm an undersized Kansas defensive line that lacks the size to close up rushing lanes. The Jayhawks are counting on FCS transfers to fill the void of losing its best pass rusher from a year ago Austin Booker. 

It also helps that Illinois' offense seems more improved in the passing game, as well as with the emergence of Pat Byrant and Ole Miss transfer Zakhari Franklin.

I'll pay to see Kansas look the part in its first test with a new offensive coordinator in place of Andy Kotelnecki and that Jalon Daniels's back is going to hold up.

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