First to Forde: Picks Against the Spread for College Football Week 5

Reed Wallach, Pat Forde | 2 Hours Ago

Week 5 Picks Against the Spread /

As conference play picks up across the nation, so is our race to 40 winners against the spread.

After both Pat Forde and Reed Wallach went 3-2 last week, each picker has kept pace with Wallach out to a two game lead. With a head-to-head matchup in Clemson vs. Stanford, can somebody separate from the other?

Let's get to our picks for this week's monster slate!

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at 11 AM EST.

Pat's Picks Against the Spread

Pat's Wins: 8

Colorado vs. UCF Prediction and Pick

Pick: UCF -15.5

The Buffaloes are set up here very similarly to their trip to Oregon last year. Then, they were coming off an emotional, semi-miraculous comeback win over Colorado State and playing an undefeated team – Oregon demolished the Buffs, 42-6. This time around Colorado is coming off the Hail Mary win over Baylor and now traveling cross-country to face an undefeated and explosive team that has had two weeks to prepare. Go big on the Knights.

Stanford vs. Clemson Prediction and Pick

Pick: Clemson -21.5

Another tough setup for the visit team. The Cardinal won a thriller last Friday at Syracuse, flew cross-country home from New York, and now must turn around and fly back to South Carolina this week. And the Clemson team they’re facing is scalding hot, scoring 125 points in its last two games. This could get out of hand.

Fresno State vs. UNLV Prediction and Pick

Pick: Fresno State +1

My, how the plot thickens around the Rebels. Starting quarterback Matthew Sluka, whose slashing dual-threat play has helped lead the team to its first 3-0 start in 40 years, abruptly left the team in an NIL dispute. Backup Hajj-Malik Williams hasn’t thrown a pass since last year, when he was at Campbell University. Go with the more settled team.

Illinois vs. Penn State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Illinois +17.5

This Illini team is evoking memories of 2022, when they won eight games and every loss was by single digits. Solid defensively, with a quarterback who can make some plays and a reliable running game, Bret Bielema’s team is just going to be difficult to play. Penn State will likely win, but it won’t be a blowout.

Maryland vs. Indiana Prediction and Pick

Pick: Indiana -7

I’m going to keep riding the red-hot Hoosiers, who have been explosive offensively and opportunistic defensively. They haven’t turned the ball over yet this season; if that continues Saturday they should win by double digits and remain undefeated.

Reed's Picks Against the Spread

Reed's Wins: 10

Washington vs. Rutgers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Rutgers -2.5

This is a tough set up for Washington, who is playing a fifth straight game and traveling from Seattle to New Jersey to face a stout Rutgers defense. 

The Huskies have looked solid to start the season despite wholesale changes across the roster, but I’m not sure how they will handle their first true road outing, especially when noting the team has accumulated the fifth most penalty yards per game to start the season. To counter, Rutgers is top 10 in limiting penalty yardage on the year.

Neither team has faced a truly difficult schedule to date this season, but I believe that Rutgers has a far more reliable floor as a team, based on running back Kyle Monangai, who is averaging north of six yards per carry.

I'll back the more reliable team at home.

Northern Illinois vs. North Carolina State Prediction and Pick

Pick: North Carolina State -6

Many are flocking to Northern Illinois in this one, but I find this as a great buy-low opportunity on the Wolfpack.

While the team got blitzed from the opening kickoff against Clemson, as expected as three possession underdogs, freshman CJ Bailey got accustomed to life as the starting quarterback, completing 65% of his passes against an elite defense on the road.

In the loss, NC State averaged north of seven yards per play. This offense may be onto something with Bailey under center.

Now, he gets an NIU team that did stun Notre Dame on the road, but also lost outright at home as a two score favorite Buffalo last week.

I think this is the time to start playing on the new-look Wolfpack, who can get on track at home against an out-matched opponent.

Louisville vs. Notre Dame Prediction and Pick

Pick: Louisville +6

Sure, Notre Dame is searching for revenge at the hands of Louisville, who blew out the Irish last season.

However, I'm not sure I can trust this Irish offensive line that is down several starters for the season and Riley Leonard continues to battle an injury to his non throwing shoulder.

Louisville has the explosive capability with wide receiver Alabama transfer Ja'Corey Brooks and potentially the return of South Alabama import Caullin Lacy from a broken collarbone to put pressure on this ND offense that is 88th in EPA/Pass so far this season.

The Irish are finishing a grueling stretch of their schedule, and I'm not sure I can trust this team to win with margin in a potentially low scoring affair.

Further, Jeff Brohm has thrived in the role as an underdog. Brohm is 20-13-1 against the spread (ATS) as a head coach in the role of an underdog since landing at Purdue, and that moniker has carried over to Louisville, including beating ND last season. Get this, in that sample, Brohm-led teams are 15-19 straight up as an underdog.

Stanford vs. Clemson Prediction and Pick

Pick: Stanford +22

Clemson may have blitzed NC State at home, but I'm going to go back to fading this team as I'm not sold on this offense just yet.

The Cardinal have been impressive to date, covering against TCU in Week 1 and stunning Syracuse as a big underdog last Friday night.

The offense has been much improved this season, 78th in EPA/Play and elite against the run, ranking 37th in EPA/Rush.

Troy Taylor's group has been much improved in his second season at the helm, and I believe that the team can apply its bend don't break nature to covering against a Clemson team that still isn't ripping off chunk plays through the air (112th in explosive pass rate).

I'll grab the Cardinal to cover a big point spread yet again against a Clemson defense that may be worse than some are letting on, ranking 111th in EPA/Rush.

Washington State vs. Boise State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Washington State +7.5

There are sure to be points in this one with a total in the 60's, but I don't see either team getting the necessary margin against one another.

Each team has sruggled to stop the oppoistion this season, but Boise State's defense looks real poor this season, ranking 128th in EPA/Play. While the team has the edge of playing at home and getting a BYE two weeks ago to rest up, Washington State's offense appears to be elite under new quarterback John Mateer.

Mateer is a big play waiting to happen with his legs and his arm, leading the Wazzu offense to the 17th best PEA?Play mark while ranking top 15 in both explosive run and pass rate.

Back the Cougs to keep this close.

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